The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security

The report examines the shift in Eastern Mediterranean geopolitics driven by hydrocarbon discoveries and the formation of trilateral partnerships (Greece-Cyprus-Israel and Greece-Cyprus-Egypt). It analyzes these alliances as a balancing act against Turkey's regional power projection and assertive foreign policy. While energy is a primary driver, the report notes that technical, economic, and political obstacles—such as the viability of the EastMed pipeline and maritime boundary disputes—hinder full monetization of gas reserves. The text also explores the domestic drivers of foreign policy in Cyprus and Greece, the historical perceptions of the region from an Israeli perspective, and Turkey's strategic ambition to become a regional energy hub.

• The Eastern Mediterranean security environment is currently shaped by four interconnected dynamics: energy discoveries, geopolitical antagonisms and power imbalances, human security imperatives, and increased interest from external powers like the US, Russia, China, and the EU.
• Trilateral partnerships involving Cyprus, Greece, Israel, and Egypt have emerged as a balancing strategy against Turkey's regional power projection and assertive foreign policy.
• The EastMed pipeline, intended to link Israeli and Cypriot gas fields to Europe via Greece and Italy, faces significant technical and economic challenges, including a depth of 3.3 kilometers and a required selling price of 8 US dollars/BTU to be viable.
• Egypt aims to become a regional 'gas hub' by utilizing its existing LNG infrastructure in Idku and Damietta to process and re-export gas from its own Zohr field as well as from Israel and Cyprus.
• Turkey's 'Vision 2023' and National Energy Strategy emphasize transforming the country into a regional energy hub to diversify suppliers and increase geopolitical leverage, though this often conflicts with its assertive sovereignty claims in the region.
• Turkey rejects the Republic of Cyprus's (RoC) unilateral exploration licenses and maritime delimitation agreements with Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon, asserting the rights of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
• Cyprus shifted from a reactive to a proactive foreign policy after 2011, utilizing trilateral partnerships and a pro-Western orientation to manage the Turkish threat and enhance its international role.
• Greek foreign policy since 2015, influenced by former Minister Nikos Kotzias, views Greece as the center of a 'triangle of instability' with vertices in Ukraine, Libya, and Syria, prompting a more active regional role to 'export stability'.
• The partnership between Egypt, Greece, and Cyprus is characterized as a flexible 'entente' rather than a rigid military alliance, as it lacks binding commitments for mutual military support in armed conflict.
• Hydrocarbon discoveries have not catalyzed peace but have instead reconfigured regional conflict into a bipolar tension between Turkey and the trilateral partnerships of Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, and Israel.

APA

Tziarras, Z. (2019). The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e0959cab-2a8c-4c7c-9e6e-5f2f3e32949e/The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean PCC Report 3-2019.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tziarras, Zenonas. The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e0959cab-2a8c-4c7c-9e6e-5f2f3e32949e/The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean PCC Report 3-2019.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tziarras |first1=Zenonas |title=The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2019 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e0959cab-2a8c-4c7c-9e6e-5f2f3e32949e/The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean PCC Report 3-2019.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tziarras2019new, author = {Tziarras, Zenonas}, title = {{The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/e0959cab-2a8c-4c7c-9e6e-5f2f3e32949e/The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean PCC Report 3-2019.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }