The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security

The document examines the discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and the subsequent formation of political alliances between Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt. It evaluates three primary monetisation strategies: the East Med pipeline to Europe, a pipeline to Turkey, and a triangular strategy using Egypt as a gas hub. The author argues that while these projects are politically desirable for regional security and EU diversification, they face severe technical, financial, and geopolitical obstacles—including high construction costs, seismic risks, and volatile global gas prices—that may render them commercially unviable.

• The European Union views natural gas as a 'bridge fuel' for the transition to renewables and seeks to diversify its supplies to reduce a heavy dependence on Russia, which is estimated to provide over one-third of its natural gas supply.
• The proposed East Med pipeline, intended to link Israeli and Cypriot gas fields to Europe via Greece, is viewed as a 'political enterprise' rather than a realistic export option due to extreme costs, technical risks, and a lack of commercial interest.
• A pipeline route through Turkey was once considered the most economical option, but it is now deemed unrealistic due to severe political tensions between Israel and Turkey, as well as legal disputes regarding Cyprus's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
• The 'triangular gas export strategy' aims to use Egypt as a regional gas hub, leveraging Egypt's developed LNG infrastructure at Idku and Damietta to export combined resources from Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt to international markets.
• The commercial viability of Eastern Mediterranean gas is threatened by the 'lower for longer' price trend and the rise of US LNG exports, which may force Russia to lower prices further and make expensive offshore projects uncompetitive.
• Bilateral tensions between Cyprus and Israel have emerged over the Aphrodite gas field, specifically regarding the Ishai license, leading to disputes over the division of reserves and the right to develop the field.
• The Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum, established in 2019, is characterized as a development of political rather than economic importance, reflecting shared national security perceptions rather than a concrete commercial framework.

APA

Stergiou, A. (2019). The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://files.prio.org/publication_files/cyprus/GeopoliticsEasternMediterranean/The%20New%20Geopolitics%20of%20the%20Eastern%20Mediterranean%20-%20Chapter%202%20-%20Geopolitics%20and%20Energy..%20-%20Andreas%20Stergiou.pdf

Chicago

Stergiou, Andreas. The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2019. https://files.prio.org/publication_files/cyprus/GeopoliticsEasternMediterranean/The%20New%20Geopolitics%20of%20the%20Eastern%20Mediterranean%20-%20Chapter%202%20-%20Geopolitics%20and%20Energy..%20-%20Andreas%20Stergiou.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Stergiou |first1=Andreas |title=The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2019 |url=https://files.prio.org/publication_files/cyprus/GeopoliticsEasternMediterranean/The%20New%20Geopolitics%20of%20the%20Eastern%20Mediterranean%20-%20Chapter%202%20-%20Geopolitics%20and%20Energy..%20-%20Andreas%20Stergiou.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{stergiou2019new, author = {Stergiou, Andreas}, title = {{The New Geopolitics of the Eastern Mediterranean: Trilateral Partnerships and Regional Security}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2019}, url = {https://files.prio.org/publication_files/cyprus/GeopoliticsEasternMediterranean/The%20New%20Geopolitics%20of%20the%20Eastern%20Mediterranean%20-%20Chapter%202%20-%20Geopolitics%20and%20Energy..%20-%20Andreas%20Stergiou.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }