Search Climate Insights Directory

The IAI is transitioning toward a 'Center of Excellence' model for water security, headquartered at the University of Arizona and the Universidad Católica de Santiago, to better integrate transdisciplinary research on hydrology and climate. Scientific synthesis has highlighted that biophysical changes in land use, such as albedo and evapotranspiration, are as critical as biogeochemical effects. The Institute has expanded its capacity-building through training institutes in Argentina, Chile, and Paraguay, focusing on seasonal climate predictions and urban responses to climate change. Administratively, the IAI faces significant instability due to personnel contracting issues in Brazil and a lack of official response from the Brazilian government regarding host country agreement amendments, leading the Executive Board to seek alternative host countries.

The IAI Directorate Report for 2011 details the transition toward establishing 'Centers of Excellence' for water security, the synthesis of research on land-use and climate interactions, and the implementation of regional training institutes. It highlights scientific findings on the importance of climate volatility over long-term trends and the role of biophysical changes in land-use. The report also addresses significant operational challenges in Brazil, including staffing instability and unresolved host country agreement amendments, while noting renewed financial and political engagement from several member countries.

The report details the progress of the Second Collaborative Research Network (CRNII), the Small Grants Program for Human Dimensions (SGP-HD), and an IDRC-funded project on the La Plata Basin. Key findings include the impact of land-use change on hydrology in the La Plata Basin, the vulnerability of Andean cloud forests and glaciers, and the development of urban pollution forecasting for Latin American cities. The document emphasizes the role of 'Human Dimensions' projects in bridging the science-policy divide, providing evidence for forest protection laws in Brazil and Argentina, and improving water management strategies in Chile and Mexico. It also highlights the capacity building achieved through scholarships and workshops for over 1,600 students across the programs.

The report details the progress of the Second Collaborative Research Network (CRNII), the Small Grants Program for the Human Dimensions (SGP-HD), and an IDRC-funded project on the La Plata Basin. It highlights the integration of social and economic research into natural sciences to bridge the science-policy divide, resulting in 343 joint scientific publications and significant capacity building for over 1,600 students. Key findings include the impact of land-use change on hydrology in the La Plata Basin, the vulnerability of Andean cloud forests and glaciers, and the influence of ocean currents on fisheries and carbon sequestration in the South Atlantic. The document also notes direct policy contributions, such as informing the National Glacier Protection Law in Argentina and updating urban decontamination plans in Bogotá and Medellín.

The IAI Directorate Report details a period of significant scientific productivity contrasted with a severe core funding crisis caused by member country non-payments. While the institute successfully advanced research on ecosystem boundaries, urban emissions, and Andean biodiversity, it faced operational disruptions, including temporary salary halts and the cancellation of travel for international climate negotiations. The report emphasizes the transition of the IAI from a funding agency to an active participant in science-policy dialogue and highlights the need for sustainable financial commitments from member states.

The IAI report for 2009-2010 highlights a transition toward active science communication and synthesis, despite severe financial crises caused by member state payment arrears. Scientific achievements include regional climate modeling for South American megacities, analysis of carbon loss in the La Plata Basin, and studies on Andean biodiversity and tropical cyclones. The institute also focused on capacity building through training institutes in Costa Rica, Argentina, and Chile, while managing critical infrastructure needs and diplomatic relations with host country Brazil.

The project investigates tropical cyclone dynamics in the Eastern Pacific, emphasizing the role of atmospheric circulations and external factors like warm dry air from the US in track prediction. Initial results include the creation of a historical database of cyclones hitting Mexican Pacific States and the training of over 100 students. The project concludes that regional-level climate studies and data collection must be expanded to accurately assess regional risks.

The document analyzes the failure of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Mexican Meteorological Service to accurately predict the path of Hurricane John in 2006, which led to flash-floods and five deaths in Baja California. Research by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) identifies a critical lack of upper air sounding data and divergences between numerical models as the primary causes for the forecast errors. The document argues for strengthened transnational collaboration and adherence to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards for weather balloon data collection to improve future tropical cyclone warnings.

The document analyzes the failure of official forecasts to accurately predict the path of Hurricane John in 2006, which led to unexpected landfall in Baja California, causing floods and five deaths. It identifies a critical deficiency in upper-atmosphere sounding data—specifically the lack of regular pilot balloon launches—as a primary cause for the forecast errors. The text advocates for strengthened transnational cooperation between the Mexican Meteorological Service and the US National Hurricane Center to meet World Meteorological Organization standards for daily air soundings to improve storm model outputs and save lives.

The document describes a study using proxy data and sediment records to reconstruct Atlantic hurricane activity from 500 AD to the present. It finds that hurricane activity peaked during the Medieval period (900-1100 AD), rivaling current levels, and correlates higher sea surface temperatures with increased hurricane frequency.

The document describes a study using proxy data—statistical climate models and sedimentary records—to reconstruct Atlantic hurricane activity from AD 500 to the present. It finds that while there is a current peak in activity, a similar peak occurred during the medieval period (AD 900-1100), which was associated with warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The research indicates that hurricane activity decreased after AD 1500, coinciding partly with the Little Ice Age, before increasing again after 1850 and especially after 1980.

The report assesses the risk of earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones, landslides, droughts, tsunamis, and civil conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. It employs a semi-quantitative approach to map hazard hotspots and estimate exposed populations, using the latter as a proxy for risk due to data limitations on mortality. The study introduces a 'coping capacity' index to evaluate national institutional ability to manage disasters. Key findings highlight that Bangladesh and the Philippines face the highest overall risk, while the region's high population density in hazard-prone areas exacerbates potential losses. The report also notes a strong correlation between natural disasters and armed conflict, suggesting that improving disaster preparedness can simultaneously mitigate conflict hazards by enhancing state service delivery in marginalized areas.

The document details how federal agencies like NOAA and NASA used media policies to control scientists' public communications on climate change. It provides specific examples of scientists, such as Dr. Thomas Knutson and Dr. Kevin Trenberth, whose media appearances were blocked or diverted to political appointees or scientists with opposing views when their research highlighted human influence on the climate or hurricane intensity.

The document details how Zimbabwe's education sector managed the aftermath of tropical cyclone Idai through a multi-stakeholder cluster system and SMS-based needs assessment. It highlights the necessity of mental health support, the role of school clusters in resource sharing, and the challenges of using schools as emergency shelters. Long-term efforts include 'building back better' with resilient infrastructure and implementing inclusive education tools like solar radios to minimize future disruptions.

The document assesses future climate projections for Belize City using a Weather Generator tool, finding that while June, July, and August may see decreased rainfall and increased temperatures, October and November are projected to experience higher intensity and more variable rainfall. These changes, combined with the city's flat elevation and poor drainage infrastructure, increase the risk of severe flooding and associated health hazards. The study emphasizes the need for updated building codes, better land-use planning, and integrated climate change considerations in infrastructure design to mitigate these risks.

The case study evaluates the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Tropical Storm Model (TSM) to project wind climate trends in Barbados. While the RCM showed some biases in baseline simulations, projections from the aenwh-driven model suggest small increases in mean wind speed and a higher frequency of days exceeding 8 ms-1 by the 2080s. The TSM 'what if' scenarios indicated that Hurricane Katrina would cause the most damage due to the longest persistence of maximum wind speeds. These findings highlight risks to coastal infrastructure, utility plants, and port operations, suggesting a need for updated building codes, extended setback limits, and the restoration of natural buffers like reefs and mangroves.

The document outlines several climate data tools for the Caribbean, including the CARIWIG portal for historical data and projections, the CARIDRO drought tool, and the Tropical Storm Model (TSM). It highlights specific research applications in Belize, Jamaica, and Cuba, and introduces the Caribbean Climate Online Risk and Adaptation tool (CCORAL) to help decision-makers integrate climate change into policy despite inherent projection uncertainties.

The document outlines the CARIWIG online data portal, which provides historical climate data and future projections at a 25km resolution for the Caribbean. It highlights four specific tools: a Weather Generator used in Belize to link rising minimum temperatures to dengue fever risks; a Tropical Storm Model used in Jamaica to predict river discharge timing during category 5 hurricanes; the CARIDRO drought tool used in Cuba to project 12-18 moderate to extreme droughts in Las Tunas province by 2050; and the CCORAL tool for integrating climate change into policy. The research emphasizes implementing adaptation actions that perform well across a wide range of uncertain future conditions.

The report examines flood risk in Jamaica, noting that while tropical cyclones cause the largest losses, flooding is not strictly related to storm intensity but often to preceding rainfall. It highlights that public infrastructure, particularly roads and bridges, suffers the most damage. Despite repeated recommendations for hazard mapping and watershed management, the report finds a persistent lack of enforcement regarding 'no build zones' and a critical shortage of digital spatial data for planners.

The document outlines the severe climate risks facing Southern Africa, noting that warming in the region's interior is occurring at approximately twice the global average rate. It projects reductions in agricultural production and freshwater availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and severe storms, and a higher risk of long-duration droughts. The text highlights that these risks are significantly exacerbated in 'low mitigation futures' where global warming exceeds 3 °C, compared to scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C. Specific vulnerabilities include food insecurity, which affected 6.5 million South Africans in 2019, and the threat of extinction for thousands of species.