A la caza de los vientos

This fact sheet describes how a lack of upper-atmosphere sounding data contributed to inaccurate trajectory and rainfall predictions for Hurricane John in 2006, leading to fatalities and flooding in Baja California, Mexico.

• Hurricane John crossed the Eastern Pacific and Mexico between August 30 and September 4, 2006. Official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issued 72, 48, and 24 hours before landfall all incorrectly indicated the storm would remain over the Pacific. The actual trajectory saw the hurricane make landfall at the southern tip of Baja California and move along the peninsula, causing flash floods and five deaths in mountain villages, while also affecting the state capital, La Paz.
• There was a significant discrepancy between predicted and actual rainfall during Hurricane John. While satellite imagery predicted moderate rainfall between 50-150 mm, some weather stations recorded more than 440 mm, resulting in major landslides and floods.
• Analysis by the IAI and a team from the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) indicates that hurricane forecast accuracy is severely reduced by a critical lack of upper-atmosphere sounding data to feed numerical models. The failure in predicting Hurricane John's path was attributed to this lack of aerial atmospheric measurements and divergence between model results.
• To improve the reliability of tropical cyclone forecasts and reduce unnecessary evacuations or loss of life, the document recommends strengthening transnational cooperation between meteorological services. Specifically, it calls for collecting pilot balloon data at regular intervals to meet the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) requirement of at least four daily air soundings.

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2010). A la caza de los vientos. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds_sp.pdf

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. A la caza de los vientos. 2010. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds_sp.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=A la caza de los vientos |date=2010 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds_sp.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2010caza, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{A la caza de los vientos}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2010}, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds_sp.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }