CARIWIG Case Study Report 8

This case study evaluates the utility of the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the Tropical Storm Model (TSM) for Integrated Coastal Zone Management in Barbados, focusing specifically on wind speed and direction projections to inform coastal protection and disaster planning.

• The PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) demonstrated significant biases when compared to observed data from Grantley Adams International Airport, overestimating mean wind speed by 27% for the ERA-driven run and 37% for the aenwh-driven run. It also substantially overestimated the number of days where wind speeds exceeded 8 ms-1 and severely underestimated the frequency of Easterly (E) wind days.
• Future wind projections vary by model: the echam5-driven model suggests no major changes in wind speed or direction, whereas the aenwh-driven scenarios suggest small increases in wind speed and slight changes in wind direction. Specifically, for the 2080s, the aenwh-forced projections suggest a mean wind speed increase of approximately 7%, a 17% increase in days with E-winds, and a 14% increase in days with winds exceeding 8 ms-1.
• Using the Tropical Storm Model (TSM) to simulate 'what if' scenarios for Hurricanes Dean, Katrina, and Ivan, the study found that while maximum wind speeds were capped at 64 knots, Hurricane Katrina displayed the longest persistence of maximum wind speeds regardless of the storm category.
• Projected increases in average wind speed and threshold exceedance during the December to March period could lead to elevated wave energy and 'above normal sea swells', potentially increasing sediment transport in the swash zone. This poses a design challenge for the Coastal Zone Management Unit (CZMU) to adapt existing protection structures, such as groynes and seawalls, which have a 50-year design life.
• The study identifies several critical infrastructure and economic risks associated with increased wind and wave activity, including threats to energy generation plants on the west and southwest coasts (Barbados Light and Power Company Limited), saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers (Barbados Water Authority), and disruptions to port operations and the fisheries sector.
• The case study highlights significant gaps in the CARIWIG tools, noting a lack of data on storm surges, near-shore waves, and wind-wave interactions. Additionally, the 25 km spatial resolution of the RCM and TSM was found to be too coarse for the size of Barbados.

APA

Bartlett, L., & Inniss, D. L. (n.d.). CARIWIG Case Study Report 8. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Case-Study-Barbados-Coastal-Zone-Protection-Final-Report.pdf

Chicago

Bartlett, Lisa, and Dr. Lorna Inniss. CARIWIG Case Study Report 8. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Case-Study-Barbados-Coastal-Zone-Protection-Final-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bartlett |first1=Lisa |last2=Inniss |first2=Dr. Lorna |title=CARIWIG Case Study Report 8 |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Case-Study-Barbados-Coastal-Zone-Protection-Final-Report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bartlettndcariwig, author = {Bartlett, Lisa and Inniss, Dr. Lorna}, title = {{CARIWIG Case Study Report 8}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Case-Study-Barbados-Coastal-Zone-Protection-Final-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }