Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century

The document outlines the severe climate risks facing Southern Africa, noting that warming in the region's interior is occurring at approximately twice the global average rate. It projects reductions in agricultural production and freshwater availability, an increase in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and severe storms, and a higher risk of long-duration droughts. The text highlights that these risks are significantly exacerbated in 'low mitigation futures' where global warming exceeds 3 °C, compared to scenarios limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C. Specific vulnerabilities include food insecurity, which affected 6.5 million South Africans in 2019, and the threat of extinction for thousands of species.

• Warming in the interior of Southern Africa is progressing significantly faster than the global average, with recorded increases in extreme temperature events and fire danger.
• Climate change is expected to reduce agricultural productivity and freshwater availability in Southern Africa, increasing the risk of food insecurity and threatening national food sovereignty.
• The region faces an increased risk of extreme weather events, including more frequent and intense heat waves, severe storms, and multi-year droughts.
• Biodiversity in Southern Africa is under significant threat, with many species facing premature extinction, which in turn weakens the region's capacity to adapt to climate change.
• The severity of future climate risks in South Africa is directly tied to global mitigation efforts, with 'low mitigation futures' exceeding 3 °C posing much higher risks than those limiting warming to 1.5 °C or 2 °C.

APA

Scholes, B., & Engelbrecht, F. (n.d.). Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Scholes, Bob, and Francois Engelbrecht. Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights, n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholes |first1=Bob |last2=Engelbrecht |first2=Francois |title=Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholesndclimate, author = {Scholes, Bob and Engelbrecht, Francois}, title = {{Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }