Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century

This executive summary, authored by Professor Bob Scholes and Professor Francois Engelbrecht, details the climate vulnerabilities and projected impacts for Southern Africa during the 21st century. It emphasizes that the region is warming at twice the global average rate and warns that agricultural production, freshwater availability, and human health are at significant risk, particularly under low-mitigation scenarios.

• Southern Africa is experiencing warming in its interior at approximately double the global average rate. This trend is accompanied by systematic increases in high fire-danger and extreme temperature events such as heat waves.
• Climate change is projected to reduce agricultural production for livestock and staple crops and decrease freshwater availability due to higher evaporation and lower rainfall. In South Africa, the agricultural sector is already under climate stress, which is exacerbated by a regional trend toward drier soils.
• The risk of long-duration and multi-year droughts is increasing due to the poleward movement of frontal systems and the strengthening of subsidence over Southern Africa. Specifically, the risk of multi-year droughts in winter rainfall regions, such as the 2015-2017 Cape Town drought, has already tripled because of climate change.
• Human health and safety are threatened by a steep increase in the number, intensity, and duration of heat waves, which reduces the capacity for outdoor manual labor and increases mortality, especially in urban areas with poor housing. Additionally, there is an increased risk of severe storms, including intense thunderstorms and tropical cyclones, leading to higher infrastructure damage and loss of life.
• Biodiversity and food security are under severe pressure. In South Africa, 15% of birds, 17% of mammals, and 14% of plants are currently threatened with extinction, primarily due to habitat degradation and loss. Regarding food security, 6.5 million South Africans (11% of the population) were classified as food insecure in 2019, a risk that increases as global mean temperatures rise above 1.5 °C.

APA

Scholes, B., & Engelbrecht, F. (n.d.). Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Scholes, Bob, and Francois Engelbrecht. Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century. Centre for Environmental Rights, n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Scholes |first1=Bob |last2=Engelbrecht |first2=Francois |title=Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{scholesndclimate, author = {Scholes, Bob and Engelbrecht, Francois}, title = {{Climate impacts in Southern Africa during the 21st Century}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Summary-Climate-impacts-in-Southern-Africa-during-the-21st-Century-final.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }