Chasing the winds

The document analyzes the failure of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Mexican Meteorological Service to accurately predict the path of Hurricane John in 2006, which led to flash-floods and five deaths in Baja California. Research by the Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) identifies a critical lack of upper air sounding data and divergences between numerical models as the primary causes for the forecast errors. The document argues for strengthened transnational collaboration and adherence to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) standards for weather balloon data collection to improve future tropical cyclone warnings.

• Forecasts for Hurricane John between August 30 and September 4, 2006, failed to predict the storm's actual trajectory through the Baja California peninsula, with early forecasts indicating the storm would remain in the Pacific.
• The failure to accurately predict Hurricane John's path resulted in heavy rains, landslides, and flash-floods that caused five deaths in mountain villages and affected the state capital, La Paz.
• There was a significant discrepancy between predicted and actual rainfall; satellite images predicted 50-150 mm, while some stations recorded over 440 mm.
• The predictive failure is attributed to a lack of airborne atmospheric measurements and inconsistencies between different numerical models.
• To improve forecast reliability, the document recommends strengthening transnational collaboration and ensuring at least four air soundings per day as required by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

APA

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (2010). Chasing the winds. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds.pdf

Chicago

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research. Chasing the winds. 2010. https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research |title=Chasing the winds |date=2010 |url=https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{interamericaninstituteforglobalchangeresearch2010chasing, author = {{Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}}, title = {{Chasing the winds}}, institution = {Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research}, year = {2010}, url = {https://iai.int/admin/site/sites/default/files/uploads/2014/06/Snapshot1_Chasing_the_winds.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }