Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize

This case study examines flood risk and urban development in Belize City, Belize, using a Weather Generator (WG) tool to project future rainfall and temperature trends. The analysis highlights a projected increase in temperature and a shift in rainfall patterns, with decreased precipitation in June, July, and August, but increased intensity and variability in October and November. These changes, combined with the city's flat topography and poor drainage infrastructure, are expected to heighten the risk of severe flooding and associated health hazards.

• Belize City is highly susceptible to flooding due to its flat topography, which is essentially at sea level, and a historical lack of proper drainage planning.
• Climate projections for the 2050s indicate a substantial temperature increase, with an expected rise of approximately 2°C during June, July, and August. This period is also projected to have a higher proportion of dry days.
• While rainfall is projected to decrease from May to September, there is an expected increase in the intensity and variability of rainfall in October and November. For October, the maximum 5-day rainfall is projected to increase by 40-50mm from a current value of 143mm.
• Increased rainfall intensity is expected to heighten the risk of severe flooding, which may threaten poorly constructed buildings and roads and increase health risks in poorer areas due to inadequate infrastructure and solid waste management.
• The combination of higher temperatures and lower rainfall in June, July, and August may lead to blocked drainage channels filled with garbage and debris, further increasing flood risk and creating health risks such as rodent infestations.
• Stakeholders suggest that the Belize City Master Plan (BZCMP) may not be effectively translated into daily management, often resulting in short-term 'quick-fixes'—such as dredging the Belize River mouth—that may not address long-term climate vulnerabilities.

APA

Chun, R., Goodess, C., Joslyn, O., & Harpham, C. (n.d.). Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Belize-City-Case-Study-Final-Report-April-2015.pdf

Chicago

Chun, Raquel, Clare Goodess, Ottis Joslyn, and Colin Harpham. Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Belize-City-Case-Study-Final-Report-April-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Chun |first1=Raquel |last2=Goodess |first2=Clare |last3=Joslyn |first3=Ottis |last4=Harpham |first4=Colin |title=Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Belize-City-Case-Study-Final-Report-April-2015.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{chunndflood, author = {Chun, Raquel and Goodess, Clare and Joslyn, Ottis and Harpham, Colin}, title = {{Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/CARIWIG-Belize-City-Case-Study-Final-Report-April-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }