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OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES AT RISK
The document explains that global sea level has risen approximately eight inches since the Industrial Revolution, driven primarily by thermal expansion and the melting of land ice due to global warming. It highlights that the U.S. East and Gulf coasts are experiencing some of the world's fastest rates of rise. Projections for 2100 range from 8 inches to 6.6 feet, with significant risks of permanent inundation, amplified storm surges, and shoreline erosion for over 100 million Americans living in coastal counties. The report argues that while adaptation is necessary, reducing heat-trapping emissions is the most effective way to limit the pace and magnitude of future sea level rise.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Landfalling tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) basin
The project seeks to extend the historical record of landfalling cyclones back to 1500, investigate lightning as a proxy for intensification, and utilize high-resolution ocean and atmospheric models (HWRF) to improve storm surge and track forecasts. Initial findings indicate that lightning distribution differs between westward-tracking cyclones and those that re-curve and make landfall, with the latter showing more lightning in outer bands. Preliminary HWRF simulations at 3-km resolution still exhibit significant errors in track, intensity, and landfall location.
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Document type: Fact sheet
CAPE of STORMS
The report examines the vulnerability of Cape Town's 307 km coastline to climate change, highlighting the risks of rising sea levels and intensified storms. It argues against relying solely on 'hard' engineering fixes, instead advocating for a 'no regrets' approach that prioritizes nature conservation and social-institutional fixes. Central to this strategy is the implementation of a 'setback line'—a demarcated buffer zone where development is restricted to protect ecosystems and reduce financial and infrastructural risk. The document emphasizes the need for a multi-criteria risk assessment and inclusive governance to address historical socio-economic inequalities in coastal access.
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Document type: Report
Rising Waters
The report examines flooding in Cape Town's informal settlements, specifically in the Philippi area, highlighting how social dynamics, political conflict, and poor infrastructure exacerbate vulnerability. It argues for a shift from top-down, technocratic 'government' to a 'collaborative governance' approach that integrates community leadership and various city departments. Additionally, it addresses the long-term threat of sea level rise and storm surges, advocating for 'set back lines' and buffer zones over hard engineering solutions.
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Document type: Report
CLIMATE ADAPTATION & TRANSPORTATION Identifying Information and Assistance Needs
The report identifies a critical gap between climate science outputs and the operational needs of transportation practitioners. It argues that adaptation requires not only improved climate data—such as updated precipitation atlases and sea-level rise projections—but also a deep understanding of local non-climate factors like infrastructure elevation and soil saturation. The document emphasizes the need for a 'central clearinghouse' of information, better 'Climate-to-English' translation of scientific terms, and the integration of climate risk into existing asset management and budgeting processes. It highlights various pilot projects and tools, including the FHWA Risk Assessment Model and Toronto's Climate Change Risk Assessment Tool, as pathways toward increasing the adaptive capacity of transportation systems.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change and Your Health
The report details the public health dangers of flooding, including drowning, waterborne diseases, mold-induced respiratory issues, and mental health trauma. It argues that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and sea-level rise, exacerbating these risks, particularly in areas with combined sewer overflow systems and high-density floodplain development.
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Document type: Report
Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem
The report details a two-day workshop in January 2010 where stakeholders used participatory scenario development (PSD) to explore three future trajectories for the Bras d’Or ecosystem to the year 2060. The process identified critical climate impacts—primarily sea-level rise, increased storminess, and heavy rainfall—and proposed adaptation strategies centered on integrated land-use planning, shoreline retreat, and capacity building. The findings emphasize that a 'best case' scenario involving integrated governance and a UNESCO Man and the Biosphere (MAB) designation provides the highest resilience against projected climate changes.
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Document type: Report
Heads above water
Using GIS methodology and 2006 census data, the document identifies that approximately 19 million people in the 23 coastal states of the conterminous U.S. live within 1 km of the shoreline, and 11.6 million live below a three-meter elevation. Florida, Louisiana, and New York have the highest absolute numbers of people living below 3 meters, while states like Rhode Island and Maine have high relative shares of their population within 1 km of the coast. These populations are identified as highly vulnerable to the combined effects of projected sea-level rise—estimated by the IPCC to be 18-59 cm by 2100—and increased cyclone activity.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Question Six: What Types of Information Are Needed for Adaptation Decision Making?
The document argues that effective climate change adaptation requires accurate data on climate risks, population vulnerability, and adaptation options. It categorizes information needs into three frameworks: responsive policymaking for sudden disasters (e.g., flooding in Pakistan), proactive planning for long-term threats (e.g., sea level rise in West African coastal cities), and robust planning for uncertain outcomes (e.g., glacier melt in Europe). The briefing seeks to determine what specific information sets, including non-climatic data, are sufficient to advance interventions and which stakeholders should define these needs.
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Document type: Briefing
Risk assessment and mitigation measures for natural- and conflict-related hazards in Asia-Pacific
The report assesses the risk of earthquakes, floods, tropical cyclones, landslides, droughts, tsunamis, and civil conflict in the Asia-Pacific region. It employs a semi-quantitative approach to map hazard hotspots and estimate exposed populations, using the latter as a proxy for risk due to data limitations on mortality. The study introduces a 'coping capacity' index to evaluate national institutional ability to manage disasters. Key findings highlight that Bangladesh and the Philippines face the highest overall risk, while the region's high population density in hazard-prone areas exacerbates potential losses. The report also notes a strong correlation between natural disasters and armed conflict, suggesting that improving disaster preparedness can simultaneously mitigate conflict hazards by enhancing state service delivery in marginalized areas.
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Document type: Report
Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
The document details the risks posed by rising temperatures and sea-level rise in the Southeast US, highlighting threats to energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural productivity, and native ecosystems.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Flood risk and Urban development in Belize City, Belize
The document assesses future climate projections for Belize City using a Weather Generator tool, finding that while June, July, and August may see decreased rainfall and increased temperatures, October and November are projected to experience higher intensity and more variable rainfall. These changes, combined with the city's flat elevation and poor drainage infrastructure, increase the risk of severe flooding and associated health hazards. The study emphasizes the need for updated building codes, better land-use planning, and integrated climate change considerations in infrastructure design to mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Case study
CARIWIG Case Study Report 8
The case study evaluates the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) and Tropical Storm Model (TSM) to project wind climate trends in Barbados. While the RCM showed some biases in baseline simulations, projections from the aenwh-driven model suggest small increases in mean wind speed and a higher frequency of days exceeding 8 ms-1 by the 2080s. The TSM 'what if' scenarios indicated that Hurricane Katrina would cause the most damage due to the longest persistence of maximum wind speeds. These findings highlight risks to coastal infrastructure, utility plants, and port operations, suggesting a need for updated building codes, extended setback limits, and the restoration of natural buffers like reefs and mangroves.
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Document type: Case study
Bangladesh and the Surging Sea
The report evaluates the risk of permanent inundation and frequent flooding in Bangladesh by 2100. Using high-resolution elevation data and two emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5), it finds that under high emissions, over 1,000 km2 of land and 8.6 lakh people could be permanently submerged. The Chittagong division is identified as having the highest population exposure risk. The analysis notes that results may be lower bounds due to elevation model errors and does not account for future shoreline defenses or population changes.
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Document type: Report
FloodVision: Visuals for coastal flooding events
FloodVision provides photorealistic, street-level visuals of projected coastal flooding to help the public understand storm surge risks. The tool uses stereoscopic video, LiDAR, and GPS data combined with generative AI to model flood depths above road level, aligning with National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts. Beyond immediate storm response, these visuals are intended for long-term resilience planning, such as securing funding and improving zoning decisions. The guide outlines a process for requesting curated visuals and establishes ethical guidelines to protect private property and ensure the tool supplements, rather than replaces, official government guidance.
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Document type: Guide
Best Practices for Using FloodVision
The document outlines how to use FloodVision to communicate flood risks, detailing specific scenarios for storm surge and sea level rise, guidelines for the ethical depiction of private property, and technical caveats regarding the tool's 'bathtub model' approach.
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Document type: Guide
Hurricane Perceptions of Coastal Connecticut Residents
The report finds that most coastal Connecticut residents are ill-prepared for severe storms, often underestimating storm surge risks and lacking awareness of their specific evacuation zones. While many residents feel confident in their ability to stay safe, a significant portion would only evacuate if officially advised, and many cite financial or health barriers to doing so.
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Document type: Report
ROLE PLAY: SIX AMERICAS, SIX VIEWS ON GLOBAL WARMING EDUCATOR
The document outlines an educational activity where students role-play six distinct audience types—Alarmed, Concerned, Cautious, Disengaged, Doubtful, and Dismissive—to practice science communication and evidence-based argumentation. It provides three scenarios: a coastal zoning law in 'Dune County', a school rain garden proposal, and a school sustainability plan. The goal is to foster social-emotional learning and critical thinking regarding climate change beliefs and misinformation.
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Document type: Guide
Source to Sea: Enhancing blue carbon ecosystems and community resilience in Kenya
The project targets Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu counties to combat impacts from drought, storms, and coastal erosion. It proposes a 'Source-to-Sea' framework that links upstream agricultural management with downstream coastal ecosystem restoration. Key interventions include restoring mangroves, coral reefs, and seagrasses, implementing climate-resilient farming to reduce riverbank erosion and sedimentation, and establishing sustainable finance mechanisms like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and blue carbon markets. The project aims to benefit approximately 323,100 direct beneficiaries, focusing on vulnerable fisherfolk and small-scale farmers, while addressing social issues such as gender-based violence and sex trafficking linked to economic desperation.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change Risks and Resilience Options for Canadas Built Infrastructure
The document outlines the vulnerabilities of Canada's built infrastructure—including wastewater, stormwater, buildings, water supply, transportation, and energy/communications systems—to climate hazards such as extreme heat, permafrost degradation, and storm surges. It provides a matrix of resilience options, ranging from nature-based solutions like urban forests and salt marshes to engineering adaptations such as heat-tolerant pavement, microgrids, and the burial of electrical lines.
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Document type: Fact sheet