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COMMENTS ON THE DRAFT NATIONAL ENERGY POLICY 2025
Natural Justice critiques the draft National Energy Policy (NEP) 2025 for Kenya, highlighting a contradiction between its clean energy goals and its proposal to continue oil, coal, and nuclear development. The organization argues that these fossil-fuel and nuclear pathways risk creating stranded assets and undermine climate commitments. Key recommendations include the adoption of a dedicated Just Energy Transition chapter, the mandatory use of Community Development Agreements (CDAs), and the alignment of land acquisition practices with World Bank standards. Natural Justice specifically urges the removal of nuclear energy and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the policy in favor of geothermal, solar, and wind alternatives.
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Document type: Statement
Midline Assessment Report for PROACT: Community-Based Interventions Program in Kenya
The PROACT program has significantly increased the knowledge, confidence, and attitudes of community team members regarding P/CVE, with knowledge levels rising from 18.4% to 90.7% post-training. The program has strengthened County Engagement Forums (CEFs) and implemented County Action Plans (CAPs), though sustainability is challenged by a reliance on external donor funding and inconsistent CEF membership. Key findings highlight a shift in terrorist recruitment from face-to-face to online methods and a need for greater security actor trust in community-led processes. Recommendations include embedding P/CVE funding into county legislation, extending the program duration for sustainable transformation, and developing P/CVE curricula for educational institutions.
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Document type: Report
Resilience and dialogue: Preventing violent extremism in Nairobi, Wajir and Kwale Counties in Kenya
The report examines community resilience and dialogue as tools to prevent violent extremism in three Kenyan counties. It identifies key risk factors, such as police brutality and socio-economic marginalisation, while highlighting existing strengths like inter-group collaboration. The authors argue for a shift from specific P/CVE interventions to broader, P/CVE-relevant development goals to reduce vulnerability.
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Document type: Report
SMALLHOLDER FORESTRY VEHICLE INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS
The Smallholder Forestry Vehicle is a proposed financial instrument designed to enable forestry companies in Africa to access long-term, low-cost finance by aggregating smallholder tree production contracts into a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). By separating the high-risk establishment and harvest phases from the lower-risk growth phase, the vehicle aims to attract institutional investors, including pension funds and impact investors. A proof-of-concept facility targeting US$ 35 million in coastal Kenya is proposed to demonstrate risk-adjusted returns and climate resilience benefits, such as land restoration and diversified income for farmers. The analysis suggests that the instrument can leverage significant private capital and be replicated across other East African nations to meet land restoration targets.
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Document type: Report
Violent extremism in Kenya
The report finds that while Kenyan women are rarely direct perpetrators of violent acts, they provide critical 'invisible infrastructure' for al-Shabaab through recruiting, intelligence gathering, and logistics. Involvement is driven by a complex interplay of poverty, socio-political marginalisation, and personal relationships. The study highlights severe impacts on women, including sexual violence in camps and psychological trauma from terror attacks and heavy-handed counter-terrorism (CT) operations. Current P/CVE responses are criticised for being gender-neutral and overly securitised, leading to mistrust between the state and affected communities.
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Document type: Report
Research from India and Kenya - FULL REPORT 1
The report evaluates how to communicate the link between anthropogenic climate change and extreme weather events, testing various phrasings for probability, frequency, intensity, and uncertainty. Findings indicate that while high-level decision makers often prefer technical percentages and 'probability' terms, the general public finds these confusing, preferring simpler terms like 'worse' or 'more often'. The study highlights significant translation challenges in Swahili and Hindi and recommends that attribution information be downscaled to high spatial resolutions and co-developed with local communication experts and trusted sources, such as national meteorological agencies.
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Document type: Report
Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The document provides guidance on communicating extreme weather event attribution to different stakeholder groups in Kenya and India, focusing on phrasing for probability, frequency, intensity, and uncertainty, as well as the use of visual aids.
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Document type: Executive summary
RAISING RISK AWARENESS: USING CLIMATE SCIENCE FOR DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
The document examines how climate science, specifically attribution science, can be used to link extreme weather events to climate change and inform disaster risk management. It highlights a case study of the 2016/2017 drought in Kenya, noting that while human-induced climate change signals were not strong for rainfall, hotter temperatures influenced by climate change and La Nina patterns contributed to the event. The brief recommends increased investment in national and subnational capacities for climate services, better inter-agency coordination, and the alignment of early warning systems with forecast-based early action.
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Document type: Policy brief
The drought in Kenya, 2016–2017
The 2016–2017 drought in Kenya, declared a national emergency in February 2017, was primarily driven by sea surface temperature patterns, specifically La Niña. While attribution analysis found no strong climate change signal in rainfall trends, it concluded that temperatures during the drought were hotter than they would have been without human-induced climate change. The drought severely impacted 23 counties, leaving up to 4 million people in need of food aid by April 2017, though it was less extreme than the 2010–2011 event.
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Document type: Research paper
Source to Sea: Enhancing blue carbon ecosystems and community resilience in Kenya
The project targets Kwale, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu counties to combat impacts from drought, storms, and coastal erosion. It proposes a 'Source-to-Sea' framework that links upstream agricultural management with downstream coastal ecosystem restoration. Key interventions include restoring mangroves, coral reefs, and seagrasses, implementing climate-resilient farming to reduce riverbank erosion and sedimentation, and establishing sustainable finance mechanisms like Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and blue carbon markets. The project aims to benefit approximately 323,100 direct beneficiaries, focusing on vulnerable fisherfolk and small-scale farmers, while addressing social issues such as gender-based violence and sex trafficking linked to economic desperation.
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Document type: Report
scn-ea-lap-toolkit_en-a01b754ba059144a.pdf
The document outlines a multisectoral approach to preventing and countering violent extremism (P/CVE) at the sub-national level. It details a five-step process for creating Local Action Plans (LAPs): securing political buy-in, conducting risk assessments, developing a Theory of Change, establishing coordination structures like Local Prevention Networks (LPNs), and legislating the plan. The guide emphasizes a 'whole-of-city' approach, drawing heavily on the Kenyan County Action Plan (CAP) model, and provides frameworks for monitoring and evaluation (M&E) to ensure sustainability beyond donor funding.
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Document type: Guide