Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This executive summary details a 2017 research project conducted in Kenya and India to determine the most effective methods, phrasing, and visual tools for communicating climate change attribution information to high-level decision makers, the media, and the general public following extreme weather events.

• Preferences for communicating probability vary by stakeholder group and country. In Kenya, high-level decision makers and media prefer percentages and the term 'chance', while the public finds probability difficult to understand and prefers information on frequency. In India, high-level decision makers prefer 'probability' and percentages, media prefer 'chance' and percentages, and the public generally prefers 'chance' despite some difficulty distinguishing it from 'probability' or 'likelihood'.
• Communication of event frequency is perceived differently across groups. Kenyan high-level decision makers and media prefer the phrase 'twice as often', while the Kenyan public is best served by simplified statements such as 'drought occurs more often because of climate change'. In India, the public found 'frequency… twice in a lifetime' easiest to understand, whereas high-level decision makers found 'factor of two' and 'twice as often' difficult.
• Regarding event intensity, 'severity' is the preferred term for high-level decision makers and media in both Kenya and India. The Kenyan public prefers the term 'worse', and the Indian public marginally prefers 'strength' and 'worse'.
• Uncertainty information is generally viewed as confusing and unnecessary for the media and general public in both countries and is recommended for exclusion. However, high-level decision makers with statistical or scientific backgrounds prefer precise numerical uncertainty (e.g., '+/- 10%').
• Visual communication preferences differ by user group. The public prefers photographs and 'before and after' comparisons, while high-level decision makers prefer graphs showing increases in frequency. Complex infographics representing probability, intensity, and frequency were found to be overwhelming and are recommended to be broken into separate visuals.
• There is a high level of interest in extreme event attribution across all stakeholders in Kenya and India. 41% of all participants responded 'definitely yes' when asked if they wanted to know more, with this figure rising to 66% for Kenyan high-level decision makers and public participants.

APA

Budimir, D. M., & Brown, S. (2017). Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf

Chicago

Budimir, Dr. Mirianna, and Sarah Brown. Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Budimir |first1=Dr. Mirianna |last2=Brown |first2=Sarah |title=Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{budimir2017research, author = {Budimir, Dr. Mirianna and Brown, Sarah}, title = {{Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }