Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The document provides guidance on communicating extreme weather event attribution to different stakeholder groups in Kenya and India, focusing on phrasing for probability, frequency, intensity, and uncertainty, as well as the use of visual aids.

• Preferences for communicating probability vary by stakeholder and country: in Kenya, high-level decision makers and media prefer percentages and the term 'chance', while the public finds probability difficult to understand and prefers frequency information. In India, high-level decision makers prefer 'probability' and percentages, media prefer 'chance' and percentages, and the public generally prefers 'chance'.
• Regarding frequency, Kenyan high-level decision makers and media prefer the phrase 'twice as often', while the Kenyan public is best reached with simplified statements like 'drought occurs more often because of climate change'. In India, the public found 'frequency… twice in a lifetime' easiest to understand, whereas high-level decision makers had mixed responses, with some preferring 'return time'.
• For describing intensity, 'severity' is the preferred term for high-level decision makers and media in both Kenya and India. The Kenyan public prefers the term 'worse', and the Indian public marginally prefers 'strength' and 'worse'.
• Uncertainty information is generally found to be confusing and unnecessary for the media and public in both countries and should be excluded for these groups. However, high-level decision makers with statistical or scientific backgrounds prefer precise numerical uncertainty (e.g., '+/- 10%').
• Visual communication preferences differ by group: the public prefers photographs and 'before' and 'after' comparisons, while high-level decision makers prefer graphs showing increases in frequency. Complex infographics representing probability or intensity were found to be overwhelming and poorly understood.
• There is a high level of interest in extreme event attribution across all stakeholders in both countries, with 41% of all participants responding 'definitely yes' when asked if they wanted to know more.

APA

Budimir, D. M., & Brown, S. (2017). Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf

Chicago

Budimir, Dr. Mirianna, and Sarah Brown. Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Budimir |first1=Dr. Mirianna |last2=Brown |first2=Sarah |title=Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=March 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{budimir2017research, author = {Budimir, Dr. Mirianna and Brown, Sarah}, title = {{Research from India and Kenya - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = mar, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/EXECUTIVE-SUMMARY-final.compressed.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }