Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem

The report details a two-day workshop in January 2010 where stakeholders used participatory scenario development (PSD) to explore three future trajectories for the Bras d’Or ecosystem to the year 2060. The process identified critical climate impacts—primarily sea-level rise, increased storminess, and heavy rainfall—and proposed adaptation strategies centered on integrated land-use planning, shoreline retreat, and capacity building. The findings emphasize that a 'best case' scenario involving integrated governance and a UNESCO Man and the Biosphere (MAB) designation provides the highest resilience against projected climate changes.

• The workshop developed three distinct future scenarios for the year 2060: a 'status quo' (Scenario 1) based on current trends, a 'best case' (Scenario 2) featuring integrated land-use policies and a UNESCO MAB designation, and a 'worst case' (Scenario 3) characterized by rapid economic development without policy integration.
• Sea-level rise is projected to cause significant infrastructure and environmental damage, including the flooding of homes and offices, loss of coastal land, and increased salinity in the estuary and groundwater reservoirs.
• Increased storminess and heavy rainfall are expected to lead to the destruction of shoreline infrastructure, degraded water quality through sedimentation, and a reduction in terrestrial and marine food production.
• Participants identified several 'no-regret' and short-term adaptation actions, most notably the elimination of building permits in areas prone to floods, storm surges, erosion, and landslides.
• Long-term resilience is heavily dependent on moving toward an integrated governance model for the Bras d’Or Lake watershed, which would include adaptive management and the creation of provincially-owned buffer zones around the estuary shores.
• Socioeconomic challenges in the region include a declining overall population, increasing proportions of elderly and First Nations populations, and limited public access to the coast, with 79% of the foreshore in private ownership.
• The 'best case' scenario (Scenario 2) is identified as having the greatest potential for adaptive responses, as it combines integrated land-use planning with the UNESCO Man and the Biosphere Program designation.

APA

Bizikova, L., & Hatcher, B. G. (2010). Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/scenario_based_planning_bras_dor.pdf

Chicago

Bizikova, Livia, and Bruce G. Hatcher. Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2010. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/scenario_based_planning_bras_dor.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bizikova |first1=Livia |last2=Hatcher |first2=Bruce G. |title=Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=May 2010 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/scenario_based_planning_bras_dor.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bizikova2010scenariobased, author = {Bizikova, Livia and Hatcher, Bruce G.}, title = {{Scenario-Based Planning for a Changing Climate in the Bras d’Or Ecosystem}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2010}, month = may, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/scenario_based_planning_bras_dor.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }