Bangladesh and the Surging Sea

This report provides a vulnerability assessment of sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flood risk in Bangladesh, utilizing high-resolution elevation data and population maps to project land and population exposure by 2100 under two carbon emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5).

• Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 1,000 km² of land in Bangladesh could be permanently submerged below the high tide line by 2100, affecting approximately 8.6 lakh people. This represents roughly 0.7% of the country's total land area and 0.6% of its total population.
• Exposure to frequent flooding—defined by the mean annual maximum water level (MAM)—is significantly higher than permanent inundation. Under RCP 8.5 by 2100, the land area and population at risk of frequent flooding are more than double those at risk of permanent submergence, with 20.7 lakh people and 2,200 km² of land exposed.
• The Chittagong division is identified as having the highest population vulnerability due to its dense, low-lying population centers. Under a high-emissions scenario, Chittagong has over twice as many people at risk of permanent submergence compared to the Barisal and Khulna divisions.
• At the district level, Chittagong district faces the highest risk of frequent flooding by 2100 under RCP 8.5, with more than 60% more people exposed than in the second-highest risk district, Cox’s Bazar.
• Local relative sea level rise is exacerbated by land subsidence, particularly west of the Ganges Delta, where relative rise could reach 2.37m by 2100 under RCP 8.5, which is triple the global sea level rise alone.
• Reducing global emissions (RCP 2.6) would lower the number of people and land area exposed to routine storm surge and tides by approximately 18% compared to the high-emissions scenario. Across districts with a median exposure of 1,000 people or more, RCP 2.6 reduces both permanent and routine inundation by an average of 19%.
• The report notes that the results may be lower bounds of actual exposure because the SRTM elevation model provides surface elevations rather than bare earth elevations, which can overestimate height in areas with vegetation or tall buildings.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Bangladesh and the Surging Sea. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKNJ5476-Bangladesh-and-Surging-Sea-RRA-report-A4-170606-WEB1.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Bangladesh and the Surging Sea. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKNJ5476-Bangladesh-and-Surging-Sea-RRA-report-A4-170606-WEB1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Bangladesh and the Surging Sea |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKNJ5476-Bangladesh-and-Surging-Sea-RRA-report-A4-170606-WEB1.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndbangladesh, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Bangladesh and the Surging Sea}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKNJ5476-Bangladesh-and-Surging-Sea-RRA-report-A4-170606-WEB1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }