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Note from CSR and CCS Co-Founder on Ten Years of Combating the Greatest Systemic Threats of Our Time
The author, a co-founder of the Center for Climate and Security (CCS) and the Council on Strategic Risks (CSR), outlines five principles for managing systemic global threats. These include acknowledging that unprecedented ecological disruption has fundamentally altered the geopolitical landscape, resisting the compartmentalization of converging threats such as climate change, nuclear weapons, and ethnonationalism, and utilizing modern foresight tools to fulfill a 'Responsibility to Prepare and Prevent'. The author emphasizes the need for systemic resilience to unforeseen shocks and the importance of interpersonal kindness in professional spheres.
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Document type: Statement
Peri-urban ecosystems: The potential for a planned approach in India
The document argues that peri-urban ecosystems in India are critical for the resilience of both urban and peri-urban populations but are frequently neglected due to ambiguous administrative boundaries and rapid urbanisation. It highlights the essential services these areas provide, such as flood control, food security, and microclimate regulation, while warning that unplanned infrastructure leads to environmental degradation. The brief recommends integrated, flexible planning at the district level, the revival of District and Metropolitan Planning Committees, and the adoption of participatory, community-led governance to balance development with ecological preservation.
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Document type: Policy brief
Dead Loss
The report finds that industrial salmon farming in the four primary producing regions (Norway, Scotland, Canada, and Chile) generated approximately USD$47.3 billion in private and external costs between 2013 and 2019. Economic losses are driven by high mortality rates and the cost of sea lice control, while environmental costs include carbon emissions, local pollution, and the depletion of wild fish stocks. Social costs are primarily linked to poor fish welfare and the diversion of forage fish from human consumption in developing regions like West Africa. The authors argue that current intensive farming practices are a 'false economy' and recommend a transition to alternative feeds and improved husbandry standards.
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Document type: Report
CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA
The report examines the intersection of climate change, energy policy, and security in Southeast Asia. It identifies key vulnerabilities, including sea level rise threatening megacities and the Mekong Delta, and extreme heat reducing economic productivity. These stressors are analyzed as 'threat multipliers' that exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, fuel violent extremism through livelihood degradation, and complicate transboundary water management of the Mekong River. The document also highlights the 'energy-climate security nexus,' arguing that the region's continued reliance on coal and the pursuit of civilian nuclear power—often involving long-term partnerships with China and Russia—create new strategic risks. It concludes with a call for 'Climate Security Watch Centers,' carbon drawdown plans for ASEAN states, and a systemic shift toward renewable energy to ensure regional stability.
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Document type: Report
THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US
The report argues that global ecological disruption is a critical, underappreciated security threat. It details how the collapse of ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and environmental crime create systemic risks including pandemics, political instability, and economic harm. The authors advocate for a fundamental reboot of U.S. national security architecture to integrate scientific expertise and prioritize ecological security alongside climate change.
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Document type: Report
Waking the sleeping giant
The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) faces a 'paradox of plenty,' where immense natural resources coexist with extreme poverty and poor human development indicators. On its current trajectory, the DRC is projected to remain a low-income country with stagnant per capita income and high poverty rates through 2050. Key constraints include endemic corruption, a massive infrastructure deficit in electricity and transport, and a high fertility rate that hinders the demographic dividend. The report models several intervention scenarios, finding that while agricultural improvements offer short-term poverty relief, long-term prosperity depends on structural economic transformation and improved governance. A combined comprehensive scenario suggests that concerted action across governance, infrastructure, human capital, and agriculture could reduce the extreme poverty rate to 9.6% by 2050.
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Document type: Report
Social Factors to Consider When Using Aqueduct Food Data
The guide argues that water and food security decisions must be accompanied by social analyses to identify and protect vulnerable groups based on sex, ethnicity, income, and race. It outlines the core objectives of social analysis, such as ensuring inclusivity in decision-making and protecting customary rights to land and water. The text illustrates potential negative impacts through scenarios, including the increased burden on women in Malawi and the marginalization of pastoralists in the Sahel. It further warns that irrigation projects in Bangladesh and Pakistan can divert domestic water to farms, and that large-scale infrastructure, such as India's UKP dam, can cause mass displacement. To support these analyses, the document lists resources from organizations like the World Bank, FAO, and UNDP, and provides a framework of critical questions regarding who benefits from and who is adversely impacted by development projects.
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Document type: Guide
Visual Representations of Food Systems: What do we see?
The IISD reviewed 32 food system visualizations (FSVs) from 1998 to 2020, finding that most are explanatory tools designed to illustrate the complexity of food systems by linking production, external drivers, and outcomes. While most FSVs focus on agricultural production and value chains, policy and governance are typically listed as influencing factors rather than primary subjects. The review found that just under one-fifth of the FSVs cover all four targets of SDG 2 (zero hunger), and only 16% specifically address food system resilience.
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Document type: Report
Climate Change and Terrorism: Three Risk Pathways to Consider
The briefing argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the primary ideological driver for terrorist groups, it acts as a risk multiplier. It identifies three channels of impact: the creation of recruitment opportunities due to food and livelihood insecurity; the erosion of state legitimacy when governments fail to respond effectively to climate-induced disasters; and the security instabilities caused by the global energy transition, which may strand assets in hydrocarbon-exporting states and increase the value of critical minerals in fragile regions.
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Document type: Briefing
Building Resilience With Nature: Maximizing Ecosystem-based Adaptation through National Adaptation Plan Processes
The document argues that ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) is an essential approach for building ecological, social, and economic resilience, offering benefits such as food security and biodiversity protection. It posits that the National Adaptation Plan (NAP) process is a key mechanism for mainstreaming EbA into national development and budgeting. The guidance is derived from an analysis of 19 completed NAP documents to identify principles and actions for integrating EbA into the planning process.
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Document type: Guide
Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
The study analyzes conflict events across 272 Syrian subdistricts to determine the relationship between agricultural cycles, drought, and violence. It finds that both government and rebel-initiated attacks were more frequent during growing seasons, with dry conditions specifically correlating with an increase in government-initiated attacks over time.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate migration needs personal stories
The text examines the link between climate change and mass migration from Central America's Northern Triangle to the U.S., highlighting how droughts and crop failures drive food insecurity and displacement. It asserts that personal narratives are more effective than data alone in shifting public perception and overcoming climate skepticism. The author calls for the U.S. government to integrate climate change into national security and immigration policies and urges communicators to use human-centric storytelling to justify international climate funding and compassionate treatment of migrants.
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Document type: Statement
Accelerating adaptation action in Africa
The document outlines a strategic framework for accelerating climate adaptation in Africa, emphasizing the integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and the need for decentralized finance. It advocates for investing in a climate-smart workforce, resilient water and energy systems, and nature-based solutions to protect biodiversity and human livelihoods.
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Document type: Research paper
Bioeconomy In Thailand At a glance
Thailand is promoting a bioeconomy centered on cassava and sugarcane to drive economic growth and social equity, though the industrial sector is more advanced than community-based efforts. While integrated into policies like Thailand 4.0 and the 20-year National Strategic Plan, the transition faces regulatory hurdles, such as the Cane and Sugar Act (1968), and environmental pressures including land and water scarcity. Social challenges include wage inequality for plantation workers and food security risks for farmers shifting from rice to sugarcane.
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Document type: Briefing
Voices from the Frontline of Covid-19
The 'Voices from the Frontline of Covid-19' project, led by CDKN and ICCCAD, documented 50 stories from June 2020 to October 2021 to understand how vulnerable communities navigate the combined impacts of the pandemic and climate change. The project emphasizes the role of spontaneous community organizing, particularly leadership from women and young people, in maintaining progress toward Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) including food security, health, and climate action. The document urges policy-makers to devolve decision-making to the local level, co-fund micro-finance mechanisms, and partner flexibly with local civil society organizations to build resilience against future shocks.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Voices from the Frontline of Covid-19
The report documents community-led responses to the Covid-19 pandemic and climate risks across the Global South, highlighting the role of social capital, women's leadership, and local innovation in maintaining development progress. It identifies specific grassroots solutions—such as community grain banks, urban kitchen gardens, and village savings groups—and argues for a shift in external support toward flexible, locally-led financing and partnerships that recognise the expertise of community-based organisations.
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Document type: Report
SOCIAL PROTECTION DURING COVID-19: THE RIGHTS TO SOCIAL SECURITY AND AN ADEQUATE STANDARD OF LIVING
The document argues that South Africa's social protection systems are inadequate to ensure a dignified standard of living, a crisis exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. It highlights the gap between the recommendations of the UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (UNCESCR) and the government's actual responses, noting that budget cuts and 'fiscal consolidation' threaten the realization of rights to food, housing, and social security.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Visual Representations of Food Systems: What do we see?
The document is a reference list of visual representations of food systems, citing figures from academic journals, international organizations, and institutional reports.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy
The document argues that climate change creates systemic, transboundary risks to food security that cannot be managed through traditional national strategies like diversification. Using a 'stress test' methodology, it identifies critical vulnerabilities in the trade of maize, rice, wheat, soy, sugar cane, and coffee, highlighting that a few major exporters—such as the US, Brazil, and China—transmit significant risk to global consumers. The authors call for a shift from national adaptation to a cooperative multilateral approach, utilizing frameworks like the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation and rethinking climate finance to target systemic resilience in global commodity markets.
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Document type: Policy brief
From Silos to Systems: Investing in Sustainable Nutrition Science for a Healthy Future
The document provides the technical appendix for a study on federal investments in sustainable nutrition science. It describes the use of the NIH Federal RePORTER database to identify projects that simultaneously address food production, human nutrition, and environmental or climate impacts. The analysis identified 53 unique projects meeting these criteria, with reported funding totaling $41.1 million over the 2016–2019 period. It also catalogues federal recommendations from 2010 to 2021 urging a shift toward interdisciplinary, systems-based research to integrate sustainability into nutrition policy and food systems.
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Document type: Report