Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy

The document argues that climate change creates systemic, transboundary risks to food security that cannot be managed through traditional national strategies like diversification. Using a 'stress test' methodology, it identifies critical vulnerabilities in the trade of maize, rice, wheat, soy, sugar cane, and coffee, highlighting that a few major exporters—such as the US, Brazil, and China—transmit significant risk to global consumers. The authors call for a shift from national adaptation to a cooperative multilateral approach, utilizing frameworks like the Paris Agreement's Global Goal on Adaptation and rethinking climate finance to target systemic resilience in global commodity markets.

• Climate change is projected to cause significant global yield reductions in five of the six analyzed commodities: sugar cane (-58.5%), Arabica coffee (-45.2%), maize (-27.0%), Robusta coffee (-23.5%), and soy (-7.2%), while wheat is projected to increase by 13.9%.
• Climate risks to global food security are concentrated and transmitted primarily through a small number of key exporting nations: the US, Brazil, and China for maize; Thailand and the US for rice; and the US for wheat.
• Traditional trade risk management strategies, including substitution and diversification, are expected to be ineffective because climate impacts are occurring simultaneously and globally, reducing the availability of resilient alternative suppliers.
• Certain regions exhibit high vulnerability to transboundary risks; for instance, Latin America and the Caribbean are heavily dependent on risky imports from the US, while countries like Kenya and Bolivia face high risks from within their own regions.
• The systemic nature of these risks could lead to increased geopolitical tension as large agricultural producers attempt to maintain market shares while managing their own climate vulnerabilities.
• The authors advocate for a multilateral approach to adaptation, suggesting that climate finance should move beyond single-country targets to support the resilience of entire international systems, such as the global maize market.

APA

Adams, K. M., Benzie, M., Croft, S., & Sadowski, S. (2021). Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf

Chicago

Adams, Kevin M., Magnus Benzie, Simon Croft, and Sebastian Sadowski. Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Adams |first1=Kevin M. |last2=Benzie |first2=Magnus |last3=Croft |first3=Simon |last4=Sadowski |first4=Sebastian |title=Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{adams2021climate, author = {Adams, Kevin M. and Benzie, Magnus and Croft, Simon and Sadowski, Sebastian}, title = {{Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }