Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy

This policy brief, based on a report by the Stockholm Environment Institute, examines transboundary climate risks to global food security through the trade of six key agricultural commodities. It argues that traditional risk management strategies like diversification are becoming ineffective due to the systemic nature of climate change, necessitating a shift toward multilateral cooperation and a global systemic view of adaptation to prevent geopolitical tension and protect import-dependent, low-income countries.

• Climate change is projected to cause significant global yield reductions in five of the six agricultural commodities analyzed: maize (-27.0%), rice (-8.1%), soy (-7.2%), sugar cane (-58.5%), and both Arabica (-45.2%) and Robusta (-23.5%) coffee. Conversely, wheat is projected to see a yield increase of +13.9%, though this may require costly redistribution to Europe, Asia, and parts of South America.
• Climate risks to global food security are concentrated in a few key exporting countries. For maize, the primary risk exporters are Brazil, China, and the US; for rice, they are Thailand and the US; and for wheat, the US is the primary risk exporter.
• The systemic nature of climate change renders traditional trade risk management—such as substitution, diversification, and hedging—ineffective, as impacts are occurring simultaneously across multiple major breadbasket regions.
• There is a significant risk that countries, particularly large agricultural producers, may prioritize national self-interest or protectionism to maintain market shares, which could destabilize markets and disproportionately harm low-income, import-dependent nations.
• The document advocates for a multilateral approach to adaptation, suggesting that the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement (specifically Article 7 and the Global Goal on Adaptation) provide existing frameworks to address the international dimensions of climate risk.
• The authors propose rethinking climate finance to target entire international systems (such as the global maize market) rather than just individual countries, as importers have a shared interest in the adaptive capacity of their exporters.

APA

Adams, K. M., Benzie, M., Croft, S., & Sadowski, S. (2021). Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf

Chicago

Adams, Kevin M., Magnus Benzie, Simon Croft, and Sebastian Sadowski. Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2021. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Adams |first1=Kevin M. |last2=Benzie |first2=Magnus |last3=Croft |first3=Simon |last4=Sadowski |first4=Sebastian |title=Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2021 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{adams2021climate, author = {Adams, Kevin M. and Benzie, Magnus and Croft, Simon and Sadowski, Sebastian}, title = {{Climate risks to trade and food security: implications for policy}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2021}, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/sei-policy-brief-climate-trade-food-adams-281021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }