Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

This research paper examines the relationship between precipitation variability, local growing seasons, and patterns of violence during the Syrian civil war from 2011 to 2019, specifically analyzing conflict events across 272 subdistricts.

• Violent events initiated by both the Syrian government and rebel groups were more likely to occur during the local growing season than at other times of the year, driven by motivations to either capture valuable cropland and harvests or destroy them to deny adversary access.
• There is evidence that dry conditions during the growing season resulted in an increase in attacks initiated by the government over the course of the war.
• The strongest correlation between precipitation deficits and violence initiated by both the government and rebels occurred in the later years of the conflict, although rainfall deviation estimates were less consistent across models than the growing season results.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (2021). Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). https://www.prio.org/publications/12739

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). 2021. https://www.prio.org/publications/12739.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) |date=7 January 2021 |url=https://www.prio.org/publications/12739 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslo2021weather, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://www.prio.org/publications/12739}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }