Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

The study analyzes conflict events across 272 Syrian subdistricts to determine the relationship between agricultural cycles, drought, and violence. It finds that both government and rebel-initiated attacks were more frequent during growing seasons, with dry conditions specifically correlating with an increase in government-initiated attacks over time.

• Violent events initiated by both the Syrian government and rebel groups occurred more frequently during the local growing season compared to other times of the year.
• Dry conditions during the growing season were associated with an increase in attacks initiated by the government throughout the course of the war.
• The correlation between precipitation deficits and violence initiated by both the government and rebels was most pronounced in the later years of the conflict.

APA

Peace Research Institute Oslo (2021). Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). https://www.prio.org/publications/12739

Chicago

Peace Research Institute Oslo. Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO). 2021. https://www.prio.org/publications/12739.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Peace Research Institute Oslo |title=Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) |date=7 January 2021 |url=https://www.prio.org/publications/12739 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{peaceresearchinstituteoslo2021weather, author = {{Peace Research Institute Oslo}}, title = {{Weather, wheat, and war: Security implications of climate variability for conflict in Syria – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2021}, month = jan, url = {https://www.prio.org/publications/12739}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }