CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

The report examines the intersection of climate change, energy policy, and security in Southeast Asia. It identifies key vulnerabilities, including sea level rise threatening megacities and the Mekong Delta, and extreme heat reducing economic productivity. These stressors are analyzed as 'threat multipliers' that exacerbate existing geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea, fuel violent extremism through livelihood degradation, and complicate transboundary water management of the Mekong River. The document also highlights the 'energy-climate security nexus,' arguing that the region's continued reliance on coal and the pursuit of civilian nuclear power—often involving long-term partnerships with China and Russia—create new strategic risks. It concludes with a call for 'Climate Security Watch Centers,' carbon drawdown plans for ASEAN states, and a systemic shift toward renewable energy to ensure regional stability.

• Sea level rise and subsidence threaten major Southeast Asian megacities and critical agricultural zones, with some models projecting a rise of up to 2.5m by the end of the century. This vulnerability is particularly acute in Bangkok, Jakarta, and Ho Chi Minh City, as well as the Mekong Delta, where saltwater intrusion threatens Vietnam's food security.
• Extreme heat is projected to cause significant economic losses in Southeast Asia, with a potential regional GDP loss of 8%-13% per year by 2050. Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines are expected to be among the most impacted by heat-related labour capacity loss, which could decrease by 16% by 2045.
• Climate change acts as a threat multiplier in the South China Sea, where declining fish stocks and rising seas exacerbate territorial disputes and military brinkmanship between China and ASEAN nations. The region's strategic importance is highlighted by the Strait of Malacca, which sees 15 million barrels of oil pass daily.
• Transboundary water management of the Mekong River is a significant source of tension, as upstream dams—primarily those built by Chinese state-owned enterprises—have reduced water flow. A study found over 126 meters of river water 'missing' between 1992-2019 due to extraction and storage in upstream reservoirs.
• Climate-induced degradation of livelihoods may increase the recruitment capacity of violent extremist organizations (VEOs) and insurgent groups, such as the Abu Sayyaf and Maute groups in the Philippines. These groups can leverage economic frustrations and recruit experienced fishermen for illegal 'blast fishing' activities.
• The region's energy transition is complicated by a continued reliance on coal and the exploration of civilian nuclear power. Nuclear energy development may increase geostrategic dependence on external suppliers, as seen in agreements between the Philippines and Russia's Rosatom, or Thailand and China.
• Climate change impairs military readiness by damaging infrastructure and increasing the demand for Humanitarian Assistance / Disaster Response (HA/DR) missions. The report recommends establishing 'Climate Security Watch Centers' to provide intelligence and analysis to policy-makers.

APA

Fetzek, S., Fleishman, R., & Rezzonico, A. (2021). CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTHEAST-Asia_February-2021.pdf

Chicago

Fetzek, Shiloh, Rachel Fleishman, and Andrea Rezzonico. CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTHEAST-Asia_February-2021.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fetzek |first1=Shiloh |last2=Fleishman |first2=Rachel |last3=Rezzonico |first3=Andrea |title=CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=February 2021 |url=https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTHEAST-Asia_February-2021.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fetzek2021climate, author = {Fetzek, Shiloh and Fleishman, Rachel and Rezzonico, Andrea}, title = {{CLIMATE SECURITY AND THE STRATEGIC ENERGY PATHWAY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://imccs.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Climate-Security-and-the-Strategic-Energy-Pathway-in-SOUTHEAST-Asia_February-2021.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }