THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US

The report argues that global ecological disruption is a critical, underappreciated security threat. It details how the collapse of ecosystem services, biodiversity loss, and environmental crime create systemic risks including pandemics, political instability, and economic harm. The authors advocate for a fundamental reboot of U.S. national security architecture to integrate scientific expertise and prioritize ecological security alongside climate change.

• Global ecological disruption is characterized as a primary 21st-century security threat, involving the destabilization of the biosphere and the potential onset of a sixth mass extinction.
• Ecological regime shifts—large, sudden, and largely irreversible changes in ecosystems—can cause severe socioeconomic disruption, such as the collapse of kelp forests affecting fisheries in the U.S., Australia, and Japan.
• Biodiversity loss is accelerating, with some estimates suggesting current species extinction rates are up to 1,000 times the natural background rate.
• Ecological degradation, particularly habitat loss and fragmentation, increases the risk of zoonotic 'spillover' pathogens, contributing to the rising frequency of pandemics.
• Environmental crime, including illegal wildlife, timber, and fisheries trade, generates significant profits for criminal and terrorist networks, with estimated annual market losses for illicit timber between $30 billion and $157 billion.
• Water stress is a major driver of instability; while interstate water wars are rare, subnational water conflicts have increased, and transboundary disputes like the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) create regional tensions.
• Food insecurity is linked to social unrest and migration, with a 1% increase in food insecurity compelling 1.9% more people to migrate per 1,000 population.
• Deforestation in the Amazon may reach a tipping point if warming reaches 4°C or deforestation exceeds 40%, potentially shifting the forest to a savanna state.
• Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing causes immense economic damage, with global net economic losses estimated between $11 billion and $36 billion.
• The U.S. national security apparatus is currently ill-equipped for 'actorless' threats, with ecological security spending representing approximately 0.01% of the federal budget.

APA

Schoonover, R., Cavallo, C., & Caltabiano, I. (2021). THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US. The Council on Strategic Risks. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Security-Threat-That-Binds-Us_2021_2-1.pdf

Chicago

Schoonover, Rod, Christine Cavallo, and Isabella Caltabiano. THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US. The Council on Strategic Risks, 2021. https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Security-Threat-That-Binds-Us_2021_2-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schoonover |first1=Rod |last2=Cavallo |first2=Christine |last3=Caltabiano |first3=Isabella |title=THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US |publisher=The Council on Strategic Risks |date=February 2021 |url=https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Security-Threat-That-Binds-Us_2021_2-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schoonover2021security, author = {Schoonover, Rod and Cavallo, Christine and Caltabiano, Isabella}, title = {{THE SECURITY THREAT THAT BINDS US}}, institution = {The Council on Strategic Risks}, year = {2021}, month = feb, url = {https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/The-Security-Threat-That-Binds-Us_2021_2-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }