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The document describes El Niño as a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. It argues that climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme El Niño events, particularly Central-Pacific (CP) events, and complicating their prediction. For 2026, there is a 61% chance of an El Niño emerging between May and July, with some models suggesting it could be the strongest in 140 years. The briefing details global teleconnections, noting that El Niño typically causes droughts in southern Africa, Australia, and India, while increasing flood risks in East Africa and the Americas. These shifts significantly impact global agriculture, reducing yields for maize, rice, and wheat while often increasing soybean yields. Regional analysis highlights specific risks, such as increased cholera in East Africa, hydropower reductions at Kariba Dam in Zambia and Zimbabwe, and the Amazon becoming a net carbon source during Eastern-Pacific (EP) events.

The document explains the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and warns that a particularly strong El Niño is forecast, which may lead to record global temperatures. It details the diverse impacts of the 2023-2024 event in Latin America, including crop failures in Mexico and Central America, droughts in northern Brazil, and energy crises in Costa Rica. It provides a list of technical resources and experts for further reporting.

The report finds that climate-driven hazards like extreme rainfall and heat stress will drive infrastructure costs to $14 billion per year by the 2050s and $19 billion by 2085 without adaptation. Proactive adaptation, requiring an average annual investment of $4.1 billion, could lower total costs by nearly $9 billion per year compared to no adaptation and over $4 billion compared to reactive adaptation. The analysis emphasizes that early action improves budget predictability and avoids cascading economic disruptions, though it notes that upgrades to existing assets must be supplemented by new protective infrastructure like dikes.

The report evaluates the costs of maintaining Canadian public infrastructure under different climate scenarios, concluding that proactive adaptation is more cost-effective than reactive repairs or inaction. It estimates that without adaptation, annual infrastructure costs could reach 14 billion dollars by the 2050s and 19 billion dollars by 2085. Proactive adaptation, requiring an average annual investment of 4 billion dollars, could reduce total costs by nearly 9 billion dollars per year compared to no adaptation. The document recommends six strategic priorities for federal, provincial, and territorial governments to accelerate resilience, including updated building codes and increased funding for municipalities and Indigenous governments.

The report examines the critical intersection of health and WaSH services in Africa, highlighting how underinvestment, colonial legacies, and external dependencies undermine human development. It details severe infrastructure gaps, such as the lack of safely managed water for 959 million people, and warns that the closure of USAID in 2025 could result in 1.8 to 2.5 million additional deaths annually through 2030. The document argues that these systems are foundational for economic productivity and resilience against climate-related disasters, but current trajectories are insufficient to meet 2030 Sustainable Development Goals.

The report quantifies how extreme heat and rainfall accelerate the deterioration of Canadian public infrastructure, increasing annual costs by $15.1B on average between 2025 and 2100 if no adaptation occurs. It compares 'reactive' and 'proactive' adaptation strategies, finding that proactive upgrades—implemented at the earliest feasible intervention—reduce average annual climate-related costs to $6.5B, a 57% reduction compared to the no-adaptation scenario. The analysis highlights that municipalities bear the heaviest financial burden, owning over 73% of the infrastructure value. A separate flood-risk assessment indicates that structural protection measures can significantly reduce future damages, though returns vary by region.

Between December 2025 and February 2026, climate change significantly boosted global temperatures, with over one in six people experiencing strong climate influence daily. Nearly 228 million people faced 30 or more risky heat days added by climate change, with 81% of these individuals residing in Africa. The analysis highlights that in 45 countries, all risky heat days during this period were driven by climate change, and 124 countries saw the average person experience at least 30 days of strong climate influence (CSI level 2 or higher).

A study by World Weather Attribution on the impact of nine named storms in the western Mediterranean, finding that while evidence is uncertain, there is a trend toward increased intensity of extreme heavy rainfall events, particularly in northern regions, exacerbated by urban development in floodplains.

Severe flooding in Mozambique, Eswatini, northeastern South Africa, and Zimbabwe since late December 2025 has caused over 200 deaths and widespread destruction. Researchers found that while the event had a return period of about 50 years, it would have been much rarer in a climate 1.3°C colder, and that extreme rainfall spells in the region have become approximately 40% more intense. A weak La Niña phase further increased the likelihood of such extreme 10-day precipitation by a factor of about 5 and increased intensity by about 22%. The document highlights that high social vulnerability, poor infrastructure, and compound hazards—such as previous droughts—exacerbated the humanitarian impact, particularly for marginalized groups and those with chronic health conditions.

Connecticut is experiencing accelerating climate risks, including more frequent extreme precipitation, rising sea levels, and increasing temperatures. The report details specific historical damages, such as a $300 million storm in August 2024 and $21 million in agricultural losses in July 2023. It projects significant future costs, including $5.3 billion for seawalls by 2040 and a 400% increase in days over 90 in Connecticut by 2050. The document provides comprehensive lists of potential adaptation costs across infrastructure, public health, and individual expenses to mitigate these hazards.

This policy brief argues that water and sanitation are strategic assets essential for Africa's peace, energy transition, and food security. It advocates for a Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus approach and Strategic Asset Management (SAM) to address a $1 trillion infrastructure investment gap by 2040 and mitigate the 'threat multiplier' effect of climate change. The brief recommends integrating water governance into the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and strengthening transboundary cooperation across the continent's 63 shared river and lake basins to prevent conflict and promote regional stability.

The report analyzes 22 extreme weather events in 2025, noting that despite weak La Nina conditions, global temperatures remained exceptionally high due to human-driven emissions. It emphasizes that warming of approximately 1.3°C has intensified heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with a specific focus on how women and marginalized groups bear a disproportionate burden. The document also identifies a critical gap in climate science, where a lack of observational data in the Global South hinders confident analysis of rainfall events. Finally, it argues that while adaptation is necessary, events like Hurricane Melissa in the Caribbean demonstrate that adaptation has limits and cannot replace the urgent need for rapid emission reductions.

Civil society organizations have issued a legal notice (somasi) to President Prabowo, urging the immediate declaration of a national disaster status following devastating floods and landslides in Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra. As of December 8, 2025, the BNPB reported 974 deaths and 298 missing persons, with tens of thousands displaced. The coalition argues that the disasters were driven by excessive and illegal private sector exploitation, categorizing these actions as 'Ecocide Crimes'. They demand central government intervention for reconstruction and a comprehensive investigation into the structural causes and corporate beneficiaries behind the environmental destruction.

A World Weather Attribution study examines the role of climate change and natural variability in the devastating floods of November 2025 across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait. While observational data indicate a significant increase in the intensity of extreme 5-day rainfall events—up to 160% in Sri Lanka and 50% in the Malacca Strait due to a 1.3°C rise in global temperatures—climate models failed to consistently capture these trends, preventing a definitive quantitative attribution. The study also notes that La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributed between 5% and 13% to the rainfall in the Malacca Strait, while rapid urbanization and infrastructure failures exacerbated the humanitarian impact.

Following devastating floods from Cyclone Senyar in Indonesia, Mighty Earth's CEO argues that deforestation has exacerbated the disaster's lethality. The document highlights the Batang Toru ecosystem as a warning sign and calls for an emergency pause on the Food and Energy Estates project to protect the country's climate resilience and enable a 25-million-acre nature restoration initiative.

Colorado is experiencing a rise in billion-dollar climate disasters, with an increase from 1.7 annually since 1980 to 4.4 per year between 2020 and 2024. The state faces critical threats from wildfires, flooding, avalanches, and drought, which impact public health, infrastructure, and the economy. Federal agencies including NOAA and FEMA provide essential forecasting, research, and funding for mitigation, such as the $13.8 million BRIC grant for the Greely Water Pipeline. However, proposed FY26 budget cuts and the cancellation of programs like BRIC threaten to shutter research labs in Boulder, eliminate cooperative university partnerships, and reduce funding for climate-smart agriculture and critical mineral surveys, potentially increasing the vulnerability of both local communities and military installations such as Buckley Space Force Base and Fort Carson.

Washington State faces escalating risks from drought, wildfires, extreme heat, and coastal flooding, which threaten its economy, ecosystems, and critical US military installations. While federal agencies like NOAA and FEMA provide essential forecasting, funding, and disaster recovery services, the report argues that recent and proposed budget cuts for FY2026—including the termination of key research laboratories and the reduction of grant programs—significantly degrade the state's capacity to prepare for and respond to these hazards.

The document outlines how human-caused climate change affects different weather phenomena. It states that extreme heat, marine heat waves, and the intensity of heavy rain and hurricanes are increasing, while extreme cold is becoming less likely. It notes that while climate change increases hot, dry conditions contributing to droughts and wildfires, other factors like land use also play a role. For localized severe storms, the document explains that current climate models cannot yet accurately simulate specific events to make direct attribution statements.

An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.

The report examines the intersection of climate change and food security in Nigeria, highlighting how extreme weather, conflict, and poor infrastructure threaten agricultural productivity. It analyzes the alignment of the FMAFS Road Map, NATIP, and the NDC, while identifying critical gaps in budget utilization and policy coordination. The document advocates for a shift toward community-led, climate-smart agriculture and improved financial transparency to achieve long-term resilience.