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Avons-nous besoin d’un désastre naturel pour nous rendre meilleurs et changer la façon dont nous vivons sur cette planète?
The author highlights the devastating floods in the Balkans and the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet as evidence of the urgent need for global societal and economic restructuring. Despite the solidarity shown during disasters, the author criticizes Balkan governments for continuing to build coal-fired power plants for export. The text calls for the elimination of fossil fuels, a reduction in energy consumption, and a move away from the current consumption-based economic model to ensure survival and sustainability.
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Document type: Statement
A local vision of climate adaptation: Participatory urban planning in Mozambique
The 4PCCD project (2011-2013) implemented a participatory urban planning tool in Maputo, Mozambique, to identify local priorities for climate action. The project demonstrated that involving citizens from informal settlements can accelerate climate policy development and empower communities to present collective visions to government and private sectors. However, the findings indicate that meaningful community consultation and scientific climate impact assessments require sufficient allocations of time and financial resources.
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Document type: Briefing
National Landmarks at Risk
The report examines the vulnerability of iconic U.S. landmarks to climate change, highlighting risks such as sea level rise in coastal cities and increased wildfire activity in the Southwest. It argues for urgent national priority in climate resilience and carbon emission reduction to protect cultural heritage.
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Document type: Report
Economic impact assessment of climate change for key sectors in Nepal
The report estimates that current climate variability costs Nepal 1.5% to 2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change potentially adding another 2% to 3% by mid-century. Analysis of three key sectors reveals significant risks: agricultural losses are projected at US$140 million per year by the 2070s, hydroelectricity may require an additional US$2.6 billion in investment by 2050 due to decreased dry season flows in some models, and water-induced disasters could cost an additional US$100–200 million annually by mid-century. To address these risks, the study estimates a total investment requirement of US$2.4 billion by 2030 across these sectors.
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Document type: Executive summary
Climate Change and the Agriculture Sector
The Kenyan agricultural sector, which accounts for over a fifth of the GDP, is highly sensitive to climate change, facing risks from unpredictable rainfall, droughts, and pests. While the sector is a significant emitter of greenhouse gases—primarily from livestock—the document emphasizes that adaptation to ensure food security and export earnings is the priority. It suggests climate-smart practices such as agroforestry and conservation tillage to build resilience and reduce emissions, while noting that the carbon market currently offers limited financial benefits due to high monitoring costs.
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Document type: Briefing
Community-led disaster risk reduction in Mongu, Zambia: Project effectiveness review
The 'Community-Led Disaster Risk Reduction' project in Mongu, Zambia, sought to enhance resilience to floods and droughts by strengthening community management capacity and promoting livelihood diversification. The review recommends that Oxfam and partners conduct further research on the impact of project-related advocacy, improve the inclusivity of community members in drought preparedness, and ensure the full dissemination of training and early-warning information.
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Document type: Research paper
Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change for Key Risks in Nepal
The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. The most significant drivers of these costs are water-induced disasters, particularly floods. Sectoral analysis indicates that while agriculture faces net losses of approximately 0.8% of current GDP per year by the 2070s, the hydroelectricity sector faces high uncertainty, with projections ranging from increased investment costs of US$2.6 billion due to decreased dry season flows to potential savings of US$170 million if flows increase. To address these risks, the study recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.
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Document type: Briefing
Economic Impact Assessment of Climate Change for Key Risks in Nepal
The study finds that current climate variability already costs Nepal 1.5–2% of its annual GDP, with future climate change projected to add another 2–3% of current GDP per year by mid-century. Key risks include significant agricultural losses in the Terai region, highly uncertain impacts on hydroelectricity investment costs depending on river flow projections, and a 20–100% increase in the intensity and frequency of high river flows. To address these, the report recommends an iterative adaptation pathway, estimating a need for US$2.4 billion in additional investment by 2030 to mainstream resilience.
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Document type: Executive summary
Preventing and Resolving Future Climate and Natural Resource-related Conflicts in the Zambezi Basin: A Study of Bulawayo and Chinde Districts
The document argues that while climate change is unlikely to be the sole direct cause of conflict, it acts as a 'threat multiplier' that intersects with poor political governance and socio-economic vulnerabilities to increase the risk of violence. In the Zambezi basin, this manifests as competition over dwindling water and food supplies, migration-induced tensions, and the manipulation of resource scarcity by political elites. Case studies of Bulawayo and Chinde highlight how chronic water shortages, flooding, and political marginalisation create flashpoints for unrest. The author emphasizes that strengthening Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC) and community resilience through grassroots organisations and traditional governance can mitigate these risks.
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Document type: Research paper
Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan
The report identifies floods and flash floods as the most damaging climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, with significant risks concentrated in the south-western Oblasts of Batken, Jalal Abad, and Osh. It finds that Batken Oblast faces the highest overall risk when combining monetary damage and livelihood impacts. While broad correlations between precipitation and disasters were not found, a strong link exists between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and cereal yields in Chui and Talas Oblasts. The assessment also highlights gender-specific vulnerabilities, noting that women in certain regions experience higher livelihood impacts from landslides and snowfall. A perception survey in Suusamyr Valley revealed a gap between local and expert understandings of climate risks, with residents prioritizing immediate economic needs over long-term climate mitigation.
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Document type: Report
Water Resource Management and Development in SADC
The case study examines the disconnect between regional water management agendas in SADC and the national development priorities of member states. It argues that traditional donors have prioritised environmental conservation and river basin organisations over the large-scale infrastructure needed for hydropower and irrigation. This has led to 'economic water scarcity' where resources exist but lack the funding for development. The author notes a shift in this dynamic due to the emergence of China and Brazil as financiers for public infrastructure, which aligns more closely with national development goals.
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Document type: Case study
Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making
The document applies an eight-step process to analyze climate risks in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, by comparing local community perceptions of floods, droughts, and sea-level rise with historical data from the Dar es Salaam International Airport station and future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario. While historical data only partially confirm local perceptions of specific flood and drought events, future projections strongly suggest increasing maximum temperatures and a likely decrease in the length of the long rainy season. The study concludes that these trends threaten agriculture and health, necessitating 'climate-smart' agricultural practices and improved coastal infrastructure.
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Document type: Case study
The Extremes Become the Norm
The report argues that climate change shifts the probability curve of temperature and precipitation, making once-rare extreme events common. It highlights that while a 4°C rise in average temperature may seem small, it significantly increases the likelihood of deadly heat waves and catastrophic floods. The document cites specific examples from the United States, Russia, and Australia to illustrate the economic and social risks, attributing 90% of global warming to human activity and urging immediate emissions reductions and adaptation measures.
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Document type: Report
Infrastructure and climate change: impacts and adaptations for the Zambezi River Valley
The study estimates that Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia face a potential US$596 million cost to maintain and repair road infrastructure due to climate-driven temperature and precipitation changes by 2050.
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Document type: Research paper
Climate change-related migration in Bangladesh
The document analyzes various migration patterns in Bangladesh—internal, cross-border, and international—concluding that displacement and short-term internal migration are the most sensitive to climate change. It highlights the role of extreme weather and river erosion in forcing movement and suggests that while migration can be an adaptation strategy, migrants often face exploitation and insecure living conditions.
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Document type: Policy brief
Embedding climate change resilience in coastal city planning: Early lessons from Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
Cartagena de Indias has developed the first adaptation guidelines for a coastal city in South America to manage risks from sea level rise, extreme weather, and flooding. These guidelines integrate scientific knowledge with the city's socioeconomic context, including its reliance on tourism and transportation. The process is being monitored by the Colombian government to inform the National Adaptation Plan and other coastal urban areas. The city views adaptation as a means to improve citizen life and avoid the long-term costs of inaction, though the process requires sustained capacity building for local stakeholders.
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Document type: Briefing
Embedding climate change resilience in coastal city planning: Early lessons from Cartagena de Indias, Colombia
The document details the creation of the 'Guidelines for Adaptation to Climate Change in Cartagena de Indias', the first of its kind for a South American coastal city. It highlights the city's vulnerabilities to sea level rise, flooding, and ecosystem degradation, while outlining a participatory process involving 64 stakeholder groups to mainstream adaptation into zoning and land-use policies. The brief emphasizes that while the guidelines provide a framework, the process requires sustained capacity building and political commitment to overcome the opportunity costs of adaptation and the skepticism of investors.
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Document type: Policy brief
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: FOCUS ON THE YAQUE DEL SUR BASIN
The report identifies significant climate risks in the Yaque del Sur watershed, where high exposure to hurricanes, floods, and droughts intersects with high poverty and low adaptive capacity. Modelling suggests that by 2050, the annual water deficit could reach 519 million m3, threatening key crops like maize and tomatoes. While the Dominican Republic has established disaster risk and climate change frameworks, the report finds a lack of coordination between these structures and deficiencies in data sharing. Recommended priority actions include shifting to drought-resilient crops (sorghum and mangoes), increasing irrigation efficiency from 20% to 45%, and implementing payment for ecosystem services to promote reforestation in the upper watershed.
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Document type: Report
GESTIÓN DE RIESGOS CLIMÁTICOS PARA LOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS Y LA AGRICULTURA EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA: ENFOQUE CENTRADO EN LA CUENCA DEL YAQUE DEL SUR
The report analyzes the intersection of climate threats and socio-economic vulnerabilities in the Yaque del Sur basin, the Dominican Republic's third-largest basin. It finds that the region faces severe water deficits and high vulnerability due to poverty and dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture. Projected climate trends include rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, which could lead to an annual water deficit of 390 million m3 by 2050. The document identifies critical gaps in institutional coordination between disaster risk management and climate change adaptation bodies. To mitigate these risks, it recommends seven priority actions, including switching to drought-resistant crops like sorghum and mangoes, increasing irrigation efficiency from 20% to 45%, and implementing payment for ecosystem services to promote reforestation in the upper basin.
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Document type: Report
CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS
The report identifies Honduras as highly vulnerable to climate hazards, particularly droughts and tropical cyclones, which threaten the livelihoods of smallholder farmers and national development goals. It highlights significant gaps in climate data, institutional coordination, and adaptive capacity, while proposing a suite of local actions—such as improved water management and agroforestry—and national policy mainstreaming to reduce vulnerability.
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Document type: Report