Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making

The document applies an eight-step process to analyze climate risks in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, by comparing local community perceptions of floods, droughts, and sea-level rise with historical data from the Dar es Salaam International Airport station and future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario. While historical data only partially confirm local perceptions of specific flood and drought events, future projections strongly suggest increasing maximum temperatures and a likely decrease in the length of the long rainy season. The study concludes that these trends threaten agriculture and health, necessitating 'climate-smart' agricultural practices and improved coastal infrastructure.

• Local villagers in Bagamoyo report several climate-related impacts, including unreliable rainfall timing and intensity, saltwater intrusion into groundwater and soils due to sea-level rise, shoreline erosion, and unpredictable seasonal sea winds affecting fishing and agriculture.
• Historical climate data (1958-2000) for the Dar es Salaam station shows a bimodal rainfall pattern with a long rainy season from March to May and a short rainy season from October to December, with April being the wettest month and September the driest.
• Comparing historical data (1994-2000) with local perceptions of floods and droughts yielded mixed results; while some anomalous rainfall periods align with community reports, the data did not clearly highlight 1996 as a standout year for rainfall despite reported floods.
• Analysis of sea-level trends in Tanzania from 1955-2003 shows an overall rising trend (0.4 to 2.0 mm/year), but data for Dar es Salaam and Zanzibar specifically showed falling trends in more recent, shorter records, making it difficult to conclude that sea-level rise is the primary driver of current local saltwater intrusion.
• Future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario for 2020-2060 indicate a very likely decrease in the length of the long rainy season and a likely increase in average maximum temperatures, with a projected increase of 0.85-1.65°C in the short to medium term (2020-2040).
• Climate projections suggest that April will likely remain the wettest month with higher averages, potentially increasing flooding, while the longer term (2040-2060) may see a longer dry season from May to August.
• The projected increase in heat and shifts in rainfall patterns necessitate the adoption of 'climate-smart' agriculture, including drought-tolerant crops like cassava and new seed varieties for maize, as well as improved water drainage and sanitation infrastructure.

APA

Besa, M. C. (2013). Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/weADAPT-CIP-Tanzania-case-study.pdf

Chicago

Besa, Monica Coll. Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2013. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/weADAPT-CIP-Tanzania-case-study.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Besa |first1=Monica Coll |title=Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=July 2013 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/weADAPT-CIP-Tanzania-case-study.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{besa2013using, author = {Besa, Monica Coll}, title = {{Using climate information to support adaptation planning and policy-making}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2013}, month = jul, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/weADAPT-CIP-Tanzania-case-study.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }