Search Climate Insights Directory

The paper argues that the armed organization to which a person belongs is the most powerful predictor of whether they become a perpetrator of conflict-related sexual violence. Using datasets like SVAC and ACLED, it finds that while state forces have historically been more frequent perpetrators, there is a recent trend of increasing reports involving rebel groups. The author identifies key organizational risk factors, such as forced recruitment and child soldiering, which use sexual violence as a socialization tool for group cohesion. Conversely, restraint is linked to strong internal governance, such as electoral leader selection and ideological norms. The paper suggests that policy interventions should target organizational structures and use risk factors as early warning indicators rather than focusing solely on individual perpetrators.

The document reports that Europe experienced its joint-fourth warmest December on record in 2025, with temperatures 1.99°C above the 1991-2020 mean. For the spring of 2026 (March-May), forecasts project warmer-than-average temperatures across the continent, with the highest anomalies in northeastern Europe, and generally weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

Europe experienced a warmer-than-average October 2025, with significant rainfall in the Balkans. Forecasts for the December 2025 – February 2026 winter period project warmer-than-average temperatures, particularly in northeastern Europe, and weakly positive precipitation anomalies.

Europe's June 2025 was its 5th warmest on record, with record-high temperatures in England, France, Italy, and most of Spain, and record-low rainfall in the Balkans. Forecasts for August-September 2025 project temperatures 1-2°C above average across most of Europe, an increase of 1-5 warm days per month, and precipitation deficits of 10-40% in parts of southeastern and southwestern Europe.

The briefing outlines four critical areas for the 75th NATO Summit to ensure the Alliance's future operating environment is resilient: planning for military responses to climate hazards, implementing the 2021 Action Plan on Climate and Security, operationalizing the nexus between climate and human security, and navigating the energy transition to reduce strategic vulnerabilities.

The document explains attribution studies—which use climate models to determine if and how much human-induced climate change affected a specific event—and provides guidance on reporting various extreme phenomena. It details how global warming increases the probability and intensity of heatwaves and heavy precipitation globally, while the effects on droughts, wildfires, and tropical cyclones vary by region or specific metric. It emphasizes that while climate change influences the risk and intensity of these events, human factors like land use and water management also contribute to whether an event becomes a disaster.

The editorial calls for the European Union to provide material and humanitarian support to Ukraine and to intensify sanctions, specifically targeting the financial system and energy ties, in response to the Russian invasion.

The document explains 'event attribution' as a scientific method to determine how much human-induced climate change affects the probability and intensity of specific weather extremes. It provides a detailed breakdown of how climate change influences heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, snowfalls, droughts, and wildfires, while cautioning against oversimplifying these events as having a single cause. The guide emphasizes that while some trends (like heatwaves) are globally certain, others (like floods or droughts) vary by region and are influenced by local human factors such as land use and water management.

The document argues that infrastructure corruption, particularly 'grand corruption' occurring early in the project lifecycle, leads to oversized or unnecessary projects that cause irreversible ecological damage. It distinguishes between petty corruption, which typically has indirect conservation impacts, and grand corruption, which influences project scope and design for private gain. Using a lifecycle analysis (origination, feasibility/design, contracting/implementation, operation/maintenance, and evaluation/audit), the briefing identifies specific risks such as bribed environmental impact assessments and the circumvention of protections. It proposes anti-corruption strategies based on integrity, transparency, and accountability, recommending risk assessments and a combination of advocacy and direct action to improve conservation outcomes.

The document highlights that only one-third of the world's longest rivers remain free-flowing, with hydropower dams and other infrastructure posing severe threats to biodiversity and human livelihoods. WWF identifies specific high-risk regions—including the Amazon, Balkans, and Southeast Asia—and proposes a four-part strategy involving science, sustainable development, advocacy, and policy governance to protect these ecosystems. By 2030, WWF aims to secure legal protections for at least 15 rivers and avoid connectivity loss on 22,500 km of river.

The research paper analyzes the 'ambivalent' nature of Turkey-Bulgaria relations, focusing on the AKP's use of the Diyanet (Presidency of Religious Affairs) and other soft power tools to influence Bulgarian Muslims. It details the shift from a coalition between the AKP and the Gülen Movement to an all-out conflict, the exportation of this domestic struggle into Bulgaria, and Turkey's attempts to influence the Bulgarian political arena through parties like DOST. The author argues that Turkey's approach is based on an 'Ottoman legacy' imaginary that often clashes with Bulgarian perceptions of sovereignty and EU membership.

The research paper analyzes the shift in Turkey's diaspora policy from treating migrants as a liability to viewing them as strategic assets for 'nation-branding' and public diplomacy. It focuses on Germany as a primary hub for these interactions, detailing how the AKP government uses institutions like the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB) and the Diyanet to mobilize loyalists while monitoring and suppressing dissidents. The authors argue that these extraterritorial measures, including transnational election campaigns and surveillance, have strained Turkey's diplomatic relations with European host countries and exacerbated polarizations within the diaspora community.

The document analyzes the relationship between the Turkish government under the AKP and the Muslim minority in Western Thrace, Greece. It argues that Turkish policy shifted from a pro-Western, democratic approach in the early 2000s to a nationalist project that views the minority as a political tool for regional hegemony. This shift is linked to the 'Strategic Depth' ideology of Ahmet Davutoğlu and the domestic political needs of the AKP, leading to increased tensions with Greece, particularly after the 2016 coup attempt.

The authors contrast the 'abuse of memory'—where past injustices are manipulated to legitimize violence—with an 'anamnetic' approach that uses personal and collective memory to find common human ground. Drawing on Paul Ricoeur, they argue that memory carries a 'duty of justice' toward others, particularly victims. To provide a practical alternative to divisive memory, the authors analyze the works of Augustine, Dante, and Petrarch, arguing that these thinkers view memory as a path from particular, personal experience toward universal truths and divine love. The paper concludes that while ideological memory separates, a conscious 'work of memory' can facilitate dialogue and reconciliation by recognizing shared human patterns of existence.

The author criticizes the EU's handling of the Greek debt crisis and the refugee crisis as evidence of a failure in solidarity, driven by a 'neoliberal size fits all' approach. The text calls for the Green party to move beyond a defensive, reformist stance and develop a clear vision for a federal Europe capable of addressing global challenges and internal imbalances.

The document proposes a new analytical framework for understanding organised crime, suggesting that criminal networks act as 'parallel sovereigns' that exercise authority in spaces neglected by formal institutions. It argues that the global neoliberal market has replaced the state as the primary referent of sovereignty, allowing criminal networks to commoditise influence and political connectivity to integrate themselves into governance.

The author highlights the devastating floods in the Balkans and the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet as evidence of the urgent need for global societal and economic restructuring. Despite the solidarity shown during disasters, the author criticizes Balkan governments for continuing to build coal-fired power plants for export. The text calls for the elimination of fossil fuels, a reduction in energy consumption, and a move away from the current consumption-based economic model to ensure survival and sustainability.

The document argues that the United States uses private military contractors (PMCs) to bridge the gap between its geopolitical ambitions as a 'global policeman' and the limited resources provided by a skeptical public. It contends that this reliance enables unilateralism, evades public and congressional oversight, and often results in inefficiency and fraud due to poor government management. The author suggests that while the Obama administration began some reforms, systemic improvements in contracting officer training, transparency, and international legal accountability are necessary to manage the inevitable role of PMCs in modern warfare.

The policy brief examines the tension between peace and justice in the context of war terminations, specifically analyzing the role of the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). It argues that the ICTY's early lack of effectiveness was due to a lack of political will, as it was initially used as a 'public relations devise' to avoid military action. However, the author contends that resolute justice serves as a deterrent to war criminals, incapacitates political actors through isolation, and consolidates peace by preventing future cycles of violence. The text highlights that when peace processes prioritize impunity, they incentivize the accumulation of power over the cessation of atrocities.

The author argues that while the end of the Cold War initially saw a rise in local conflicts, the overall trend is moving toward a more peaceful world. This optimism is grounded in the observed decline in the number of armed conflicts since the late 1990s and the positive influence of global trends such as poverty reduction, democratization, and the rise of international military interventions for conflict settlement. The analysis highlights that internal conflicts (civil wars) are the dominant form of violence and are most strongly linked to poverty, though the author distinguishes between 'greed' and 'grievance' motivations. The document also notes that while ethnic polarization and resource scarcity are often cited as causes of war, systematic evidence is often ambiguous or secondary to broader economic and political factors.