Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna

The document explains 'event attribution' as a scientific method to determine how much human-induced climate change affects the probability and intensity of specific weather extremes. It provides a detailed breakdown of how climate change influences heatwaves, floods, tropical cyclones, snowfalls, droughts, and wildfires, while cautioning against oversimplifying these events as having a single cause. The guide emphasizes that while some trends (like heatwaves) are globally certain, others (like floods or droughts) vary by region and are influenced by local human factors such as land use and water management.

• Event attribution research uses climate models to compare the current world with a simulated 'world without human influence' to calculate how much global warming increased or decreased the probability and intensity of a specific event.
• Human-induced climate change has a definitive and strong global impact on heatwaves, making every such event more intense and more likely to occur.
• Extreme precipitation is more frequent and intense across most of the world due to climate change, particularly in Europe, most of Asia, and parts of North America, though the link to actual flooding also depends on human factors like urban drainage and land use.
• While the total annual number of tropical cyclones has not increased, climate change has increased the frequency of the most intense (Category 3–5) storms and the amount of precipitation they produce.
• The probability and intensity of extreme cold have decreased globally, but the impact on heavy snowfall is less certain, with possible increases in intensity only in specific high-latitude regions like parts of North America, Northern/Eastern Asia, and Greenland.
• Weather conditions conducive to wildfires are increasing on all continents, with a clear increase in probability and burned area observed in Southern Europe, Northern Eurasia, the USA, and Australia.

APA

Clarke, B., & Otto, F. (2022). Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/CZE-Reporting-extreme-weather-climate-change.pdf

Chicago

Clarke, Ben, and Friederike Otto. Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna. World Weather Attribution, 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/CZE-Reporting-extreme-weather-climate-change.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Clarke |first1=Ben |last2=Otto |first2=Friederike |title=Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna |publisher=World Weather Attribution |date=2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/CZE-Reporting-extreme-weather-climate-change.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{clarke2022extrmy, author = {Clarke, Ben and Otto, Friederike}, title = {{Extrémy počasí a klimatická změna}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/CZE-Reporting-extreme-weather-climate-change.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }