CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS

This report, commissioned by the UNDP and implemented by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), assesses climate risks for smallholder agriculture in Honduras. It identifies a high vulnerability to droughts, tropical storms, and floods, which threaten food security and national development goals. The report recommends a combination of local adaptive actions—such as improved water and soil management—and institutional reforms to mainstream climate risk into national agricultural policy.

• Honduras is highly vulnerable to climate extremes, with agriculture contributing 12 percent of the GDP and providing livelihoods for a majority of the population. Smallholders are particularly at risk as the expansion of cattle ranching and monocultures pushes them onto "ever poorer and steeper soils".
• Current climate hazards include droughts and aridity primarily in the south, west, centre, and southeast; tropical storms and cyclones leading to floods and landslides, predominantly in the northeast; and cold fronts on the Caribbean coast.
• Climate projections indicate a hotter and drier future for Honduras. By 2090, warming could reach 2°C to 4°C, and annual rainfall could decrease by 13 percent to 31 percent, with the most extreme reductions (up to 86 percent) possible in the south between June and August.
• Historical climate events have caused massive economic losses in the agricultural sector. Hurricane Mitch in 1998 caused over US$ 2 billion in agricultural losses, while a 2001 drought related to El Niño resulted in agricultural losses of US$30 million.
• Future climate change is projected to significantly reduce yields of staple crops. Average maize yields are expected to decrease by 4 percent by 2025 and 12 percent by 2050, while bean yields are projected to drop by 11 percent by 2025 and 32 percent by 2050 compared to 2000 levels.
• Smallholder farmers possess limited adaptive capacity due to low income, low education levels, and environmental degradation. While some use sustainable strategies like crop diversification and seed banks, many resort to unsustainable responses such as clearing forests or temporary migration.
• Climate risks threaten several national development goals, including the reduction of poverty and inequality, food security, and the government's target to grow the agricultural sector by 4 percent annually and increase irrigation by 30 percent.
• Honduras has established coordinating authorities for disaster management (COPECO) and climate change (SERNA), but coordination between these two domains is not properly institutionalized, and vertical coordination for climate adaptation is lacking.
• There are significant gaps in climate information management, including patchy weather data, a lack of continuous data series, and insufficient early-warning systems, which hinder effective risk management.
• Priority risk management actions identified include improving local governance through watershed councils, implementing climate-conscious territorial planning, adopting micro-irrigation, and promoting agroforestry and crop diversification.
• The report recommends the thorough mainstreaming of climate risk into key public policy, specifically the 'Public Sector Strategy on Agriculture and Food,' and strengthening the political clout and resources of agencies like SERNA and COPECO.

APA

Keller, M. (2013). CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_honduras.pdf

Chicago

Keller, Marius. CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2013. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_honduras.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Keller |first1=Marius |title=CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=January 2013 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_honduras.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{keller2013climate, author = {Keller, Marius}, title = {{CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN HONDURAS}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2013}, month = jan, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/crm_honduras.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }