Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan

This report presents a preliminary climate risk profile for Kyrgyzstan, focusing on the correlation between climate factors and disasters, as well as impacts on crop production and livelihoods. Developed by CAMP Alatoo and UNDP, the assessment identifies floods and flash floods as the most damaging climate-related disasters, with significant risks concentrated in the south-western Oblasts, particularly Batken, Jalal Abad, and Osh. The report also highlights gender-specific vulnerabilities and a gap between expert assessments and local perceptions of risk in the Suusamyr Valley.

• Floods and flash floods are the most significant climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, causing an estimated US$ 66 million in damage between 2000 and 2011. Jalal Abad and Osh Oblasts suffered the highest total monetary damage, estimated at US$ 23.1 million and US$ 16 million, respectively.
• While Jalal Abad has the highest absolute damage, Batken Oblast faces the highest per capita burden, with flood and flash flood damage estimated at US$ 3.02 per person. Batken is also identified as the Oblast with the greatest overall risk when combining damage and livelihood impacts.
• The assessment found no clear correlation between precipitation totals and the frequency of climate-related disasters across the seven Oblasts, although some occasional correlations for floods and flash floods were noted in Jalal Abad and Naryn.
• A strong correlation exists between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the yield of wheat, barley, and maize in the Chui and Talas Oblasts, suggesting that precipitation changes directly impact cereal production in these major agricultural areas.
• Females in Kyrgyzstan experience climate risks differently than the general population. They are more heavily impacted by landslides in Osh and Jalal Abad, and by snowfall in Talas, Naryn, and Issyk Kul. In Osh Oblast, females experience higher livelihood impacts across all disaster types.
• A perception survey in the Suusamyr Valley revealed a gap between local residents and experts regarding climate hazards. Residents often confuse climate change with variability and prioritize immediate economic needs over risk mitigation; 71% of women and 61% of men would spend US$ 500 on needs other than climate risk mitigation.
• Future damage from the five assessed climate disasters is projected to reach US$ 153 million by 2032 if damage increases at the rate of population growth (1.1% per year). However, a 2% annual reduction in average damage per event could lower this total to US$ 109.5 million.
• Kyrgyzstan is projected to face significant environmental changes by 2100, including a 4.6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 64-95% reduction in total glacial area.

APA

Kelly, C., Biyalieva, C., Dolgikh, S., Erokhin, S., Fedorenko, A., Gareeva, A., YannGarcin, Ibraimova, A., Iliasov, S., Mastre, I., Podrezov, A., Volovik, Y., Uzakbaeva, J., & Sidorin, A. (2013). Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf

Chicago

Kelly, C., Chinara Biyalieva, Svetlana Dolgikh, Sergey Erokhin, Alexander Fedorenko, Aida Gareeva, YannGarcin, et al. Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2013. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{kelly2013testing, author = {Kelly, C. and Biyalieva, Chinara and Dolgikh, Svetlana and Erokhin, Sergey and Fedorenko, Alexander and Gareeva, Aida and YannGarcin and Ibraimova, Aliya and Iliasov, Shamil and Mastre, Iren and Podrezov, Andrey and Volovik, Yegor and Uzakbaeva, Jyldyz and Sidorin, Andrey}, title = {{Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2013}, month = aug, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }