Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan

The report identifies floods and flash floods as the most damaging climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, with significant risks concentrated in the south-western Oblasts of Batken, Jalal Abad, and Osh. It finds that Batken Oblast faces the highest overall risk when combining monetary damage and livelihood impacts. While broad correlations between precipitation and disasters were not found, a strong link exists between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and cereal yields in Chui and Talas Oblasts. The assessment also highlights gender-specific vulnerabilities, noting that women in certain regions experience higher livelihood impacts from landslides and snowfall. A perception survey in Suusamyr Valley revealed a gap between local and expert understandings of climate risks, with residents prioritizing immediate economic needs over long-term climate mitigation.

• Floods and flash floods are the most significant climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, causing an estimated US$ 66 million in damage between 2000 and 2011. Jalal Abad and Osh Oblasts suffered the highest total monetary damages, estimated at US$ 23.1 million and US$ 16 million, respectively.
• Batken Oblast experiences the highest per capita damage from floods and flash floods at US$ 3.02 per person and the highest overall damage per year per person at US$ 3.12.
• When combining monetary damage and livelihood impact scores, Batken is rated as the Oblast at the greatest overall risk, followed by Jalal Abad.
• The assessment found no clear correlation between precipitation totals and the frequency of climate-related disasters across the seven Oblasts, although some occasional correlations for floods and flash floods were noted in Jalal Abad and Naryn.
• There is a significant correlation between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the yield of cereals, specifically wheat, barley, and maize, in the Chui and Talas Oblasts, suggesting that precipitation changes directly impact production in these major agricultural areas.
• Women in Kyrgyzstan experience climate risks differently than the general population; they are identified as having higher livelihood impacts from landslides in Osh and Jalal Abad, and from snowfall in Talas, Naryn, and Issyk Kul Oblasts.
• A perception survey in the Suusamyr Valley indicated that local residents do not prioritize climate risk mitigation, with 71% of women and 61% of men stating they would spend a hypothetical US$ 500 on other needs rather than risk reduction.
• The Suusamyr Valley survey revealed a gap between expert and local perceptions; for example, residents perceived winters to be colder than experts assessed, and they often failed to differentiate between climate change and climate variability.
• Future damage from all five assessed climate disasters is projected to reach US$ 153 million by 2032 if damage increases at the population growth rate of 1.1% per year, whereas a 2% annual reduction in damage would lower this to US$ 109.6 million.

APA

Kelly, C., Biyalieva, C., Dolgikh, S., Erokhin, S., Fedorenko, A., Gareeva, A., YannGarcin, Ibraimova, A., Iliasov, S., Mastre, I., Podrezov, A., Volovik, Y., Uzakbaeva, J., & Sidorin, A. (2013). Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf

Chicago

Kelly, C., Chinara Biyalieva, Svetlana Dolgikh, Sergey Erokhin, Alexander Fedorenko, Aida Gareeva, YannGarcin, et al. Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2013. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{kelly2013testing, author = {Kelly, C. and Biyalieva, Chinara and Dolgikh, Svetlana and Erokhin, Sergey and Fedorenko, Alexander and Gareeva, Aida and YannGarcin and Ibraimova, Aliya and Iliasov, Shamil and Mastre, Iren and Podrezov, Andrey and Volovik, Yegor and Uzakbaeva, Jyldyz and Sidorin, Andrey}, title = {{Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2013}, month = aug, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }