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Digital Transformation in SSP
The study integrates digital transformation projections into the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework using statistical models calibrated from 62 countries. It highlights the risk of a persistent digital divide and provides a methodology for quantifying the impact of digitalization on climate goals and sustainable development.
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Document type: Research paper
Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document provides a comprehensive analysis of how the transition to net-zero emissions affects nine global sectors: agriculture, carbon markets, critical minerals, digital transformation, energy transition, fisheries, heavy industries, shipping, and textiles and garments. It examines the intersection of trade policies and climate action, highlighting the risks of 'green protectionism' and the potential for developing countries to capture new economic opportunities through value addition and green industrialization. The reports emphasize the need for international cooperation to ensure a just transition, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS).
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Document type: Briefing
THE CARBON INEQUALITY ERA
The report finds that global carbon emissions are starkly unequal, with the richest 10% of the population responsible for nearly half of all emissions in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, the richest 10% accounted for 46% of the total growth in absolute emissions. The analysis shows a shift where within-country emissions inequality has risen while between-country inequality has fallen. Future projections suggest that even under more equal socio-economic scenarios, the poorest 50% of the population will have very limited access to the remaining global carbon budget, as the wealthiest groups have already depleted a disproportionate share.
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Document type: Research paper
HERON: Forward-looking socio-economic research on Energy Efficiency in EU countries
The document outlines cross-cutting barriers to energy efficiency in Estonia, categorized as social, cultural, economic, educational, and institutional. It concludes that without additional policy measures, Estonia will fail to meet its 2020 energy efficiency target. While 2020 GHG targets for the non-ETS sector are likely to be met, achieving 2030 targets will require significant interventions, including the renovation of 40% of single-family and 50% of multi-family houses, as well as improved fuel efficiency and spatial planning in the transport sector.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan
The report identifies floods and flash floods as the most damaging climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, with significant risks concentrated in the south-western Oblasts of Batken, Jalal Abad, and Osh. It finds that Batken Oblast faces the highest overall risk when combining monetary damage and livelihood impacts. While broad correlations between precipitation and disasters were not found, a strong link exists between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and cereal yields in Chui and Talas Oblasts. The assessment also highlights gender-specific vulnerabilities, noting that women in certain regions experience higher livelihood impacts from landslides and snowfall. A perception survey in Suusamyr Valley revealed a gap between local and expert understandings of climate risks, with residents prioritizing immediate economic needs over long-term climate mitigation.
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Document type: Report
Global Land & Food in the 21st Century
The report projects that global food requirements will increase significantly by 2050, driven by population growth and rising dietary standards in less developed countries (LDCs). While theoretical land and yield potentials exist, the report argues that meeting this demand will require massive increases in crop yields, a substantial expansion of cultivated land in Africa and Latin America, and a six-fold increase in cereal exports from developed regions. It highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the environmental impact of forest clearance, suggesting a 'doubly green' revolution focused on sustainable intensification and policy reform to avoid food insecurity.
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Document type: Report
Global Land & Food in the 21st Century
The report analyzes the sustainability of global food systems up to 2050, projecting a significant increase in food demand, particularly in less developed regions (LDCs). It argues that while global production can theoretically meet this demand through yield increases and land expansion, this requires massive shifts in trade, where developed regions (MDCs) must substantially increase cereal exports to Africa and the Middle East. The study highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the need for a 'doubly green' revolution in agricultural technology to avoid environmental collapse.
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Document type: Report