{"query_echo":{"q":"","filters":{"analysis_type":["scenario projection"]},"warnings":[{"code":"facet_value_not_in_vocabulary","message":"Value 'scenario projection' for facet 'analysis_type' is not in the controlled vocabulary."}]},"total":{"value":7,"relation":"eq"},"page":1,"page_size":20,"self":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/api/v1/search?analysis_type=scenario+projection","stability":"beta","ai_marking":{"digital_source_type":{"uri":"http://cv.iptc.org/newscodes/digitalsourcetype/trainedAlgorithmicMedia","name":"Created using Generative AI"},"notice":"Summary and key insights are generated using artificial intelligence."},"results":[{"id":"sei-000233","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-000233","title":"Digital Transformation in SSP","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2025-10-10","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/publications/digital-transformation-in-ssp/","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The study integrates digital transformation projections into the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) framework using statistical models calibrated from 62 countries. It highlights the risk of a persistent digital divide and provides a methodology for quantifying the impact of digitalization on climate goals and sustainable development.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000233#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"The study utilizes statistical models calibrated with historical data from 62 countries across 12 world regions to project digital transformation within the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), aiming to enhance the contextual detail of this climate research framework.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000233#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Certain scenarios indicate a significant and lasting digital divide, where as much as 45% of the population may still live in countries with low digital transformation by 2050, even as wealthier nations continue to digitalize.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000233#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The authors identify six specific use cases where the explicit inclusion of digital transformation in SSPs allows for the quantitative measurement of its effects on emissions, energy, climate policy, and Sustainable Development Goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-000233#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["greenhouse gas emissions","climate policy","Sustainable Development Goals","digital divide"],"geography_discussed":[],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["quantitative assessment","scenario projection"]},{"id":"tess-000096","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/tess-000096","title":"Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development","publisher":{"name":"Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs","organization":"forum-on-trade-environment-the-sdgs"},"document_type":"briefing","language":"en","date_published":"2025-09","source_url":"https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Compilation-Net-Zero-Series-WEB-version.pdf?dm=1761643621","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document provides a comprehensive analysis of how the transition to net-zero emissions affects nine global sectors: agriculture, carbon markets, critical minerals, digital transformation, energy transition, fisheries, heavy industries, shipping, and textiles and garments. It examines the intersection of trade policies and climate action, highlighting the risks of 'green protectionism' and the potential for developing countries to capture new economic opportunities through value addition and green industrialization. The reports emphasize the need for international cooperation to ensure a just transition, particularly for least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Agriculture is both a major contributor to global warming and a critical sector for adaptation, with food systems contributing more than a third of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2022.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Climate change is projected to significantly increase food insecurity, with nearly 500 million people estimated to remain at risk of hunger by 2050, including an additional 28 million in East and Southern Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Mandatory carbon pricing revenues reached a record $104 billion in 2023, though most current prices remain too low to meet Paris Agreement goals.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Voluntary carbon markets have faced a crisis of confidence due to 'greenwashing' and claims that over 90% of credits from the largest certifier, Verra, were 'worthless'.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Demand for critical minerals is expected to double or quadruple by 2040, with China dominating the processing of graphite, rare earths, cobalt, and lithium.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The 'twin transition' of digital and green transformations offers efficiency gains but also introduces new environmental costs, with the ICT sector contributing between 1.4% and 4% of global GHG emissions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The energy transition requires a massive shift in global energy supply, with fossil fuels needing to drop from 80% to 16% of the global energy supply to meet the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global fish catches are projected to decline by 3–25% by 2050, with tropical developing regions expected to experience the most severe reductions.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Heavy industries like steel, aluminium, and cement account for roughly 17–20% of global GHG emissions and are characterized by 'lumpy' investment cycles of 20–50 years.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The International Maritime Organization (IMO) targets net-zero GHG emissions for shipping by or around 2050, but the transition faces a significant cost gap between zero-emission fuels and fossil fuels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The global fashion industry is estimated to be responsible for up to 10% of annual global carbon emissions, with production in hubs like Bangladesh, Cambodia, Pakistan, and Vietnam highly vulnerable to climate shocks.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-11","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Developing countries face the risk of 'green protectionism' through measures like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which may impose disproportionate burdens on their exports.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"tess-000096#insight-12","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","carbon emission trading","critical minerals","energy transition","heavy industry","Net-zero emissions","climate finance","carbon price","Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism","circular economy","greenhouse gas emissions","Sustainable Development Goals","sustainable development","green hydrogen","electric vehicle","renewable energy","deforestation","food security","carbon leakage","sustainable procurement"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","European Union","People's Republic of China","United States","Brazil","India","Bangladesh","South Africa"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["sectoral analysis","policy assessment","trade impact study","scenario projection"]},{"id":"sei-002440","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002440","title":"THE CARBON INEQUALITY ERA","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"research paper","language":"en","date_published":"2020-09","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/research-report-carbon-inequality-era.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report finds that global carbon emissions are starkly unequal, with the richest 10% of the population responsible for nearly half of all emissions in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, the richest 10% accounted for 46% of the total growth in absolute emissions. The analysis shows a shift where within-country emissions inequality has risen while between-country inequality has fallen. Future projections suggest that even under more equal socio-economic scenarios, the poorest 50% of the population will have very limited access to the remaining global carbon budget, as the wealthiest groups have already depleted a disproportionate share.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"In 2015, the richest 10% of the global population were responsible for 49% of annual global carbon emissions, while the poorest 50% were responsible for only 7%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Between 1990 and 2015, the richest 10% of the population were responsible for 46% of the total growth in absolute global carbon emissions, with the richest 5% alone contributing 37%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The average per capita consumption emissions of the top 1% in 2015 were more than 100 times higher than those of the poorest half of the world's population.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While a majority of emissions from the top 1% and 10% global income groups still came from North America and Europe in 2015, there is an increasing share of these emissions located in industrializing countries like China and India.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global carbon inequality has shifted over time; between-country inequality has declined as poorer regions grew faster, while within-country emissions inequality has generally risen, exceeding between-country inequality as early as 2008.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Under a high-inequality future scenario (SSP4) with current emission trajectories (RCP6.0), the richest 1% of the population would account for 55% of the rise in global emissions before they peak, while the bottom 50% would be responsible for only 3%.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The top 1% of the global population is projected to exceed the 1.5C carbon budget limit before the bottom 50% in both the more equal (SSP1) and more unequal (SSP4) scenarios.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002440#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["carbon dioxide emissions","carbon budget","climate justice"],"geography_discussed":["People's Republic of China","India","North America","Europe"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["historical analysis","scenario projection","distributional analysis"]},{"id":"sei-001401","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-001401","title":"HERON: Forward-looking socio-economic research on Energy Efficiency in EU countries","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"fact sheet","language":"en","date_published":"2017-03","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/heron-fact-sheet-estonia-23032017.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The document outlines cross-cutting barriers to energy efficiency in Estonia, categorized as social, cultural, economic, educational, and institutional. It concludes that without additional policy measures, Estonia will fail to meet its 2020 energy efficiency target. While 2020 GHG targets for the non-ETS sector are likely to be met, achieving 2030 targets will require significant interventions, including the renovation of 40% of single-family and 50% of multi-family houses, as well as improved fuel efficiency and spatial planning in the transport sector.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Estonia is unlikely to achieve its 2020 energy efficiency target, as set by the Estonian National Energy Development Plan 2030+, under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario without additional policy measures.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The EU non-ETS 2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) target is expected to be met under both BAU and energy efficiency scenarios, partly due to the 2005 baseline figures and existing legislation such as the requirement for nearly-zero energy houses starting in 2021.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Meeting EU 2030 energy efficiency and non-ETS GHG targets requires substantial building renovations: specifically, 40% of single-family houses and 50% of existing multi-family houses must be renovated by 2030.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"While the transport sector may meet the EU non-ETS target by 2020, the 2030 targets are challenging because current energy demand trends exceed both National and EU baseline targets. Necessary actions include improving the fuel efficiency of new cars and integrating spatial planning to reduce car dependency.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Energy efficiency progress in Estonia is hindered by various cross-cutting barriers, including social factors like willingness to pay, cultural habits, economic issues such as low population density and dependence on private investment, educational gaps in specialist knowledge, and institutional difficulties in inter-administrative cooperation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-001401#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["energy efficiency","greenhouse gas emissions","transport policy","fuel efficiency"],"geography_discussed":["European Union"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario projection","barrier analysis"]},{"id":"cdkn-000535","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/cdkn-000535","title":"Testing of Climate Risk Assessment Methodology in Kyrgyzstan","publisher":{"name":"Climate and Development Knowledge Network","organization":"climate-and-development-knowledge-network"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"2013-08","source_url":"https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Climate-Risk-Profile-Fin-clear.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report identifies floods and flash floods as the most damaging climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, with significant risks concentrated in the south-western Oblasts of Batken, Jalal Abad, and Osh. It finds that Batken Oblast faces the highest overall risk when combining monetary damage and livelihood impacts. While broad correlations between precipitation and disasters were not found, a strong link exists between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and cereal yields in Chui and Talas Oblasts. The assessment also highlights gender-specific vulnerabilities, noting that women in certain regions experience higher livelihood impacts from landslides and snowfall. A perception survey in Suusamyr Valley revealed a gap between local and expert understandings of climate risks, with residents prioritizing immediate economic needs over long-term climate mitigation.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Floods and flash floods are the most significant climate-related disasters in Kyrgyzstan, causing an estimated US$ 66 million in damage between 2000 and 2011. Jalal Abad and Osh Oblasts suffered the highest total monetary damages, estimated at US$ 23.1 million and US$ 16 million, respectively.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Batken Oblast experiences the highest per capita damage from floods and flash floods at US$ 3.02 per person and the highest overall damage per year per person at US$ 3.12.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"When combining monetary damage and livelihood impact scores, Batken is rated as the Oblast at the greatest overall risk, followed by Jalal Abad.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The assessment found no clear correlation between precipitation totals and the frequency of climate-related disasters across the seven Oblasts, although some occasional correlations for floods and flash floods were noted in Jalal Abad and Naryn.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There is a significant correlation between the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and the yield of cereals, specifically wheat, barley, and maize, in the Chui and Talas Oblasts, suggesting that precipitation changes directly impact production in these major agricultural areas.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Women in Kyrgyzstan experience climate risks differently than the general population; they are identified as having higher livelihood impacts from landslides in Osh and Jalal Abad, and from snowfall in Talas, Naryn, and Issyk Kul Oblasts.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A perception survey in the Suusamyr Valley indicated that local residents do not prioritize climate risk mitigation, with 71% of women and 61% of men stating they would spend a hypothetical US$ 500 on other needs rather than risk reduction.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The Suusamyr Valley survey revealed a gap between expert and local perceptions; for example, residents perceived winters to be colder than experts assessed, and they often failed to differentiate between climate change and climate variability.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Future damage from all five assessed climate disasters is projected to reach US$ 153 million by 2032 if damage increases at the population growth rate of 1.1% per year, whereas a 2% annual reduction in damage would lower this to US$ 109.6 million.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"cdkn-000535#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["flood","flash flood","landslide","drought","Climate risk assessment","glacial melting","water resource","hydropower"],"geography_discussed":["Batken Oblast","Osh Region","Jalal-Abad Region","Naryn Region","Issyk Kul Oblast","Chui Oblast","Talas Oblast","Suusamyr Valley","Kazakhstan"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["risk assessment","econometric analysis","perception survey","scenario projection"]},{"id":"sei-002576","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002576","title":"Global Land & Food in the 21st Century","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"1995","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report projects that global food requirements will increase significantly by 2050, driven by population growth and rising dietary standards in less developed countries (LDCs). While theoretical land and yield potentials exist, the report argues that meeting this demand will require massive increases in crop yields, a substantial expansion of cultivated land in Africa and Latin America, and a six-fold increase in cereal exports from developed regions. It highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the environmental impact of forest clearance, suggesting a 'doubly green' revolution focused on sustainable intensification and policy reform to avoid food insecurity.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global food demand is projected to increase substantially by 2050, with required supply for cereals increasing by a factor of 1.99, other crops by 2.27, and animal products by 2.37 relative to 1989 levels.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The growth in food demand is most acute in Africa and the Middle East; by 2050, these regions must produce over seven times more animal products than in 1989, and cereal requirements will increase by factors of 3.7 to 3.8.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"To meet LDC deficits, developed regions must increase cereal exports more than six-fold between 1989 and 2050, rising from approximately 90 million to 552 million tons annually.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Global cultivated land is projected to increase by only 11% between 1989 and 2050, with a 21% increase in LDCs and a 1% reduction in more developed countries (MDCs).","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"There are vast theoretical potentials for expanding rainfed cultivated land in Africa, Latin America, and China+, with potential increases by factors of 5.5, 5.7, and 3.3 respectively over 1989 areas, though irrigation expansion is much more limited.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report identifies severe risks of land degradation, noting that some estimates suggest 10 million hectares of productive cropland are lost annually to degradation and urban expansion, which is more than double the recent rate of cropland expansion.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Dietary shifts in LDCs are projected to increase the share of animal products in total calories, which in turn increases the demand for crops used as animal feed, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report argues for a 'doubly green' revolution that combines higher productivity with resource conservation, utilizing biological pest control, agroforestry, and improved nutrient management to increase yields sustainably.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002576#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","food security","land degradation","deforestation","agricultural irrigation","greenhouse gas emissions","biodiversity loss","crop yield","water resource"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Middle East","People's Republic of China","South & Southeast Asia","North America","Western Europe","Eastern Europe","Former Soviet Union","OECD Pacific"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario projection","resource assessment","policy analysis"]},{"id":"sei-002577","url":"https://climateinsightsdirectory.org/document/sei-002577","title":"Global Land & Food in the 21st Century","publisher":{"name":"Stockholm Environment Institute","organization":"stockholm-environment-institute"},"document_type":"report","language":"en","date_published":"1995","source_url":"https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995-lowres-scan.pdf","generator":"Climate Insights Directory","generated_fields":["summary","key_insights","climate_tags","geography_discussed","analysis_type"],"summary":{"text":"The report analyzes the sustainability of global food systems up to 2050, projecting a significant increase in food demand, particularly in less developed regions (LDCs). It argues that while global production can theoretically meet this demand through yield increases and land expansion, this requires massive shifts in trade, where developed regions (MDCs) must substantially increase cereal exports to Africa and the Middle East. The study highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the need for a 'doubly green' revolution in agricultural technology to avoid environmental collapse.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#summary","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},"key_insights":[{"text":"Global food demand is projected to increase significantly by 2050, with required supply for cereals rising by a factor of 1.99, other crops by 2.27, and animal products by 2.37 globally between 1989 and 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-1","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The most acute increases in food requirements are projected for Africa and the Middle East; by 2050, these regions must produce over seven times more animal products than in 1989.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-2","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"A significant 'North-South food gap' is projected, where MDCs must increase cereal exports more than 6-fold from 90 million to 552 million tons annually by 2050 to meet LDC deficits.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-3","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"North America and Western Europe are expected to be primary exporters to fill this gap, with North America almost trebling cereal exports to 330 million tons and Western Europe more than quadrupling them to 122 million tons by 2050.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-4","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Land degradation is a severe risk, with some estimates suggesting 2,000 million hectares of soil have been degraded by human action since 1945, at an annual rate of 40 million hectares.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-5","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Africa faces particularly high degradation risks, with one survey estimating that 72% of its arable land and 31% of its pasture land are already degraded.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-6","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The report suggests that the 'doubly green' revolution—combining higher productivity with resource conservation—is necessary to feed the future population sustainably.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-7","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Water scarcity is projected to be a critical constraint in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, where continuing irrigation trends could exhaust potential by 2025.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-8","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"Dietary shifts in developed regions, such as the substitution of rice by animal products and higher-value vegetables in Japan, have contributed to a recent decline in per capita global cereal production.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-9","date_modified":"2026-10-23"},{"text":"The scenario assumes a global population increase to just over 10 billion by 2050, with the largest growth occurring in LDCs, particularly Africa.","ai_generated":true,"unit":"sei-002577#insight-10","date_modified":"2026-10-23"}],"climate_tags":["agriculture","food security","land degradation","water resource","greenhouse gas emissions","biodiversity","international trade","agricultural irrigation","sustainable development"],"geography_discussed":["Africa","Middle East","South and Southeast Asia","Latin America","North America","Western Europe","Eastern Europe","Former Soviet Union","OECD Pacific","People's Republic of China"],"frame_perspective":[],"analysis_type":["scenario projection","trend analysis","resource assessment"]}]}