Global Land & Food in the 21st Century

The report analyzes the sustainability of global food systems up to 2050, projecting a significant increase in food demand, particularly in less developed regions (LDCs). It argues that while global production can theoretically meet this demand through yield increases and land expansion, this requires massive shifts in trade, where developed regions (MDCs) must substantially increase cereal exports to Africa and the Middle East. The study highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the need for a 'doubly green' revolution in agricultural technology to avoid environmental collapse.

• Global food demand is projected to increase significantly by 2050, with required supply for cereals rising by a factor of 1.99, other crops by 2.27, and animal products by 2.37 globally between 1989 and 2050.
• The most acute increases in food requirements are projected for Africa and the Middle East; by 2050, these regions must produce over seven times more animal products than in 1989.
• A significant 'North-South food gap' is projected, where MDCs must increase cereal exports more than 6-fold from 90 million to 552 million tons annually by 2050 to meet LDC deficits.
• North America and Western Europe are expected to be primary exporters to fill this gap, with North America almost trebling cereal exports to 330 million tons and Western Europe more than quadrupling them to 122 million tons by 2050.
• Land degradation is a severe risk, with some estimates suggesting 2,000 million hectares of soil have been degraded by human action since 1945, at an annual rate of 40 million hectares.
• Africa faces particularly high degradation risks, with one survey estimating that 72% of its arable land and 31% of its pasture land are already degraded.
• The report suggests that the 'doubly green' revolution—combining higher productivity with resource conservation—is necessary to feed the future population sustainably.
• Water scarcity is projected to be a critical constraint in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, where continuing irrigation trends could exhaust potential by 2025.
• Dietary shifts in developed regions, such as the substitution of rice by animal products and higher-value vegetables in Japan, have contributed to a recent decline in per capita global cereal production.
• The scenario assumes a global population increase to just over 10 billion by 2050, with the largest growth occurring in LDCs, particularly Africa.

APA

leach, G. (1995). Global Land & Food in the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995-lowres-scan.pdf

Chicago

leach, Gerald. Global Land & Food in the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1995. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995-lowres-scan.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{leach1995global, author = {leach, Gerald}, title = {{Global Land \& Food in the 21st Century}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1995}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995-lowres-scan.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }