Global Land & Food in the 21st Century

The report projects that global food requirements will increase significantly by 2050, driven by population growth and rising dietary standards in less developed countries (LDCs). While theoretical land and yield potentials exist, the report argues that meeting this demand will require massive increases in crop yields, a substantial expansion of cultivated land in Africa and Latin America, and a six-fold increase in cereal exports from developed regions. It highlights critical risks including soil degradation, water scarcity, and the environmental impact of forest clearance, suggesting a 'doubly green' revolution focused on sustainable intensification and policy reform to avoid food insecurity.

• Global food demand is projected to increase substantially by 2050, with required supply for cereals increasing by a factor of 1.99, other crops by 2.27, and animal products by 2.37 relative to 1989 levels.
• The growth in food demand is most acute in Africa and the Middle East; by 2050, these regions must produce over seven times more animal products than in 1989, and cereal requirements will increase by factors of 3.7 to 3.8.
• To meet LDC deficits, developed regions must increase cereal exports more than six-fold between 1989 and 2050, rising from approximately 90 million to 552 million tons annually.
• Global cultivated land is projected to increase by only 11% between 1989 and 2050, with a 21% increase in LDCs and a 1% reduction in more developed countries (MDCs).
• There are vast theoretical potentials for expanding rainfed cultivated land in Africa, Latin America, and China+, with potential increases by factors of 5.5, 5.7, and 3.3 respectively over 1989 areas, though irrigation expansion is much more limited.
• The report identifies severe risks of land degradation, noting that some estimates suggest 10 million hectares of productive cropland are lost annually to degradation and urban expansion, which is more than double the recent rate of cropland expansion.
• Dietary shifts in LDCs are projected to increase the share of animal products in total calories, which in turn increases the demand for crops used as animal feed, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
• The report argues for a 'doubly green' revolution that combines higher productivity with resource conservation, utilizing biological pest control, agroforestry, and improved nutrient management to increase yields sustainably.

APA

leach, G. (1995). Global Land & Food in the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995.pdf

Chicago

leach, Gerald. Global Land & Food in the 21st Century. Stockholm Environment Institute, 1995. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=leach |first1=Gerald |title=Global Land & Food in the 21st Century |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=1995 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{leach1995global, author = {leach, Gerald}, title = {{Global Land \& Food in the 21st Century}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {1995}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/SEI-Polestar5-GlobalLandAndFood-Leach-1995.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }