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The 2026 floods in Upper Assam, which affected over 500,000 people and caused at least 99 deaths, were driven by high exposure and structural vulnerability rather than climate-driven rainfall increases. Analysis shows the rainfall events had return periods of less than two years and that human-induced warming of 1.4°C did not materially alter their likelihood or intensity. The study highlights that unplanned urbanization, deforestation, and colonial land policies have increased vulnerability, while reliance on rigid embankments has proven insufficient for adaptation.

The report identifies structural challenges in Zimbabwe, including political instability and climate vulnerabilities, and proposes a synergised policy approach across sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and governance. It argues that prioritising industrialisation and AfCFTA integration could accelerate GDP growth to 9% by 2030 and peak at 14% in 2037.

The report analyses Africa's development path to 2043, comparing a 'Current Path' baseline with various sectoral scenarios and a 'Combined' scenario. While the Current Path shows steady growth, it fails to meet Agenda 2063 targets, leaving 19.1% of the population in extreme poverty. The Combined scenario demonstrates that coordinated reforms in governance, trade (AfCFTA), education, and infrastructure could raise GDP (MER) to US$8.87 trillion, increase GDP per capita (PPP) to US$8,040, and reduce extreme poverty to 10.9%. Key findings highlight the critical role of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and governance as the most transformative levers for income growth and poverty reduction. The report also details a significant energy gap, where demand is projected to outpace production by 2043 despite massive solar potential, and a health transition marked by a 'double burden' of persisting communicable diseases and rapidly rising non-communicable diseases.

The document presents a working framework for an intersectional approach to climate risk assessments (CRAs), developed through a co-production workshop in May 2025. This approach aims to move beyond oversimplified views of vulnerability by analyzing how intersecting systems of inequity create structural barriers. The framework is currently being tested via participatory case study research in Nepal and South Africa.

Nigeria's economy is heavily reliant on oil, which accounts for roughly 50% of the national budget and over 90% of foreign exchange earnings. This dependency has led to 'Dutch Disease', severe environmental degradation in the Niger Delta, and fiscal fragility due to oil price volatility. With global oil demand projected to peak by 2030, the report argues for an urgent transition. It recommends diversifying into solar and hydro power, agro-processing, green manufacturing, and the digital economy. Key policy proposals include establishing a National Economic Diversification Master Plan, redirecting fossil fuel subsidy savings toward green investment, and joining a Fossil Fuel Treaty to secure transition finance and debt resolution.

The report projects that Mauritius will see steady GDP per capita growth and eliminate extreme poverty at the US$5.50 line by 2036 under its current path. While the country is a low emitter, carbon emissions are expected to rise from 1.3 million tons in 2019 to 1.8 million tons by 2043. The 'Combined scenario'—integrating improvements in trade, manufacturing, and finance—could increase GDP per capita by 18.5% by 2043, though it would also result in an additional 0.3 million tons of carbon emissions compared to the baseline.

Comoros is a lower-middle-income island state characterized by a tropical climate prone to intense cyclones and a history of political instability. Its economy relies heavily on subsistence farming, fishing, and EU budgetary support, while its development is hindered by frequent coups and the compounding effects of natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic.

The statement calls for the South Korean National Assembly to urgently amend the Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality following a Constitutional Court ruling that the existing law violates the environmental rights of future generations. It criticizes the government and the People Power Party for delaying the process despite public support for stronger targets and warns that such delays exacerbate vulnerabilities for women, workers, farmers, and the urban poor.

The report critiques South Africa's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) 2020 and its 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for failing to address the root causes of current vulnerability, such as poverty and inequality. It argues that focusing solely on system resilience—such as 'climate smart agriculture'—without reducing existing vulnerabilities like food insecurity leads to 'maladaptation' and risks a 'downward spiral of undevelopment.' The author proposes shifting from 'incremental adaptation' (technical adjustments) to 'transformative adaptation' (system transitions), incorporating a distributive justice framework similar to that used in energy transitions to ensure that the structural causes of vulnerability are dismantled.

This fact sheet presents data to justify a transition away from fossil fuels in Latin America and the Caribbean, emphasizing the risk of stranded assets and the region's high vulnerability to climate impacts. It highlights a contradiction where the region possesses the world's cleanest electricity grid yet continues to increase fossil fuel production and consumption. The document calls for the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies—which totaled USD 52.8 billion in 2024—and the implementation of a 'Just Transition Mechanism' following COP30 to support labor reconversion and community sovereignty.

The report analyzes the evolution of state governance in the Global South, identifying a disconnect between political participation and institutional capacity. It employs a horizon scan across five domains and develops four scenarios—the Growth World, Sustainable World, Divided World, and World at War—to model potential governance trajectories. Key findings highlight the rise of hybrid governance, the destabilizing effect of extreme inequality, and the urgent need for anticipatory governance to manage systemic shocks like the global debt crisis and climate vulnerability.

The Centre for Environmental Rights (CER) and Natural Justice (NJ) argue that the proposed MIR for onshore exploration in South Africa lacks the specificity, enforceable standards, and climate integration necessary to protect environmental integrity and community interests. They recommend mandatory greenhouse gas accounting, a regional cumulative impact assessment, and a comprehensive public health baseline. Technical experts in the document highlight critical gaps in groundwater monitoring, the absence of a risk-based 'traffic light protocol' for induced seismicity, and the need for transparent chemical disclosure of fracturing fluids. The authors ultimately argue that hydraulic fracturing is incompatible with South Africa's climate commitments and water scarcity, suggesting it should be prohibited.

The guide explains that climate vulnerability is driven by intersecting systems of inequity—such as racism, ableism, and patriarchy—which create structural barriers and conditions like poverty or social isolation. It advocates for moving beyond single-issue analyses to identify and challenge the root causes of vulnerability, ensuring adaptation efforts reach the most marginalized populations.

A World Weather Attribution study examines the role of climate change and natural variability in the devastating floods of November 2025 across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait. While observational data indicate a significant increase in the intensity of extreme 5-day rainfall events—up to 160% in Sri Lanka and 50% in the Malacca Strait due to a 1.3°C rise in global temperatures—climate models failed to consistently capture these trends, preventing a definitive quantitative attribution. The study also notes that La Niña and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole contributed between 5% and 13% to the rainfall in the Malacca Strait, while rapid urbanization and infrastructure failures exacerbated the humanitarian impact.

The paper evaluates a two-year knowledge co-production process in Malmö focused on urban heat vulnerability, finding that collaborative efforts can reproduce power imbalances and sideline certain perspectives. Applying the lens of epistemic injustice, the authors identify seven unintended consequences, including territorial stigmatization and token participation, and argue that adaptation projects must be treated as political and moral undertakings rather than purely technical exercises.

Colorado is experiencing a rise in billion-dollar climate disasters, with an increase from 1.7 annually since 1980 to 4.4 per year between 2020 and 2024. The state faces critical threats from wildfires, flooding, avalanches, and drought, which impact public health, infrastructure, and the economy. Federal agencies including NOAA and FEMA provide essential forecasting, research, and funding for mitigation, such as the $13.8 million BRIC grant for the Greely Water Pipeline. However, proposed FY26 budget cuts and the cancellation of programs like BRIC threaten to shutter research labs in Boulder, eliminate cooperative university partnerships, and reduce funding for climate-smart agriculture and critical mineral surveys, potentially increasing the vulnerability of both local communities and military installations such as Buckley Space Force Base and Fort Carson.

An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.

The report finds that international adaptation finance for SIDS is severely insufficient, averaging just over USD 2 billion annually in 2021–2022, while assessed needs are approximately USD 12 billion. It highlights that 44% of this finance was provided as debt, posing macroeconomic risks, and notes a high concentration of funds, with 10 SIDS receiving 67% of tracked finance. The document calls for a six-fold increase in flows, a shift from ODA eligibility to a multidimensional vulnerability index, and improved tracking of both public and private investments.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The author argues that the OACPS should move beyond traditional tariff liberalization to a 'muscular' trade and sustainability agenda at the WTO. This proposed plan includes negotiating a plurilateral agreement on green industrialization, creating a dedicated technical facility for sustainable development, and establishing a coherence platform to align trade with global sustainability initiatives like the UNFCCC and UN SDGs. To support this, the document suggests replicating EU models of strategic partnerships on critical raw materials and Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships (CTIPs), which combine private investment with public guarantees and technology transfer. The author emphasizes that such an integrated approach is essential for OACPS members—particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and commodity-dependent nations—to mitigate climate vulnerability and transition toward green industrialization.