CLIMATE ADAPTATION, JUSTICE AND EQUITY: CONCEPTUALISING A ‘JUST ADAPTATION’ IN SOUTH AFRICA

The report critiques South Africa's National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) 2020 and its 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for failing to address the root causes of current vulnerability, such as poverty and inequality. It argues that focusing solely on system resilience—such as 'climate smart agriculture'—without reducing existing vulnerabilities like food insecurity leads to 'maladaptation' and risks a 'downward spiral of undevelopment.' The author proposes shifting from 'incremental adaptation' (technical adjustments) to 'transformative adaptation' (system transitions), incorporating a distributive justice framework similar to that used in energy transitions to ensure that the structural causes of vulnerability are dismantled.

• South Africa is highly susceptible to a 'climate tipping point' where repeated climate shocks deepen poverty and reduce the efficacy of adaptation, potentially leading to a 'downward spiral of undevelopment.'
• Current South African adaptation policies, specifically the NCCAS 2020 and 2025 NDCs, disproportionately focus on disaster management and system resilience while neglecting the reduction of existing vulnerabilities.
• The report identifies a critical policy failure in the food sector: strategies focus on supply-side resilience (e.g., supporting small-scale farmers) despite the fact that the primary driver of food insecurity in South Africa is the retail price of food relative to household income.
• The author argues that 'system resilience' is not the same as reducing 'individual vulnerability,' and that increasing the resilience of a system can actually deepen inequality if the costs of those investments lead to higher prices for the poor.
• The report proposes a 'just adaptation' framework that adopts the 'distributive justice' concepts from energy transition literature, which addresses both the reduction of existing inequalities and the prevention of future ones.
• South Africa's current approach is characterized as 'incremental adaptation'—focused on technical and managerial fixes—which the author argues should be replaced by 'transformative adaptation' that fundamentally reimagines system operations.
• Global climate finance is heavily skewed toward mitigation over adaptation; in 2023, USD 1.78 trillion was allocated to mitigation compared to USD 65 billion for adaptation.

APA

Ledger, T., & Mathibela, N. (2026). CLIMATE ADAPTATION, JUSTICE AND EQUITY: CONCEPTUALISING A ‘JUST ADAPTATION’ IN SOUTH AFRICA. Public Affairs Research Institute. https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/20260713_JustAdaptation_Report_TracyLedger-.pdf

Chicago

Ledger, Tracy, and Nonhlanhla Mathibela. CLIMATE ADAPTATION, JUSTICE AND EQUITY: CONCEPTUALISING A ‘JUST ADAPTATION’ IN SOUTH AFRICA. Public Affairs Research Institute, 2026. https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/20260713_JustAdaptation_Report_TracyLedger-.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Ledger |first1=Tracy |last2=Mathibela |first2=Nonhlanhla |title=CLIMATE ADAPTATION, JUSTICE AND EQUITY: CONCEPTUALISING A ‘JUST ADAPTATION’ IN SOUTH AFRICA |publisher=Public Affairs Research Institute |date=April 2026 |url=https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/20260713_JustAdaptation_Report_TracyLedger-.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ledger2026climate, author = {Ledger, Tracy and Mathibela, Nonhlanhla}, title = {{CLIMATE ADAPTATION, JUSTICE AND EQUITY: CONCEPTUALISING A ‘JUST ADAPTATION’ IN SOUTH AFRICA}}, institution = {Public Affairs Research Institute}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://pari.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/20260713_JustAdaptation_Report_TracyLedger-.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }