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The study concludes that human-induced climate change had no significant influence on the occurrence of Storms Eleanor and Friederike. While observational data from the past 40 years show a decrease in near-surface wind speeds, climate models suggest a marginal increase in the probability of extreme hourly winds (0-20%) by the middle of the century due to greenhouse gases. The observed decline in storminess is attributed to factors other than climate change, such as increased surface roughness, aerosols, and decadal variability.

On 19 May 2016, Phalodi, India, recorded an all-time record high temperature of 51°C. An analysis by the Raising Risk Awareness Project found that while annual mean temperatures across India are increasing and heat waves in some small areas are becoming more frequent and intense, human-induced climate change did not play a detectable role in this specific event or a similar one in Andhra Pradesh in May 2015. The study suggests this lack of a detectable trend might be caused by irrigation use and the masking effect of aerosols on warming.

The December 2015 extreme rainfall event in Chennai, India, which saw a record 494 mm of rain in 24 hours, was determined by climate attribution studies to be a 1 in 600–2,500 year event not caused by anthropogenic global warming. While the event's rarity would have overwhelmed most cities, its impact was exacerbated by poor land-use planning, including the encroachment of wetlands and riverbeds, and a clogged drainage system. The document recommends that Indian cities integrate wetland protection, river basin approaches, and vulnerability-focused disaster action plans into their urban development to build resilience against increasing extreme weather trends.

A scientific analysis of the December 2015 Chennai floods found no detectable effect of human-induced climate change on the extreme one-day rainfall event, likely due to the masking effect of aerosol pollution in the region.

The document discusses the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events in India, highlighting the role of climate attribution science in identifying the human-induced causes of these events. It emphasizes that such science helps decision-makers create targeted heat action plans that account for vulnerability, exposure, and local factors like the urban heat island effect, air pollution, and humidity. The brief notes that while aerosols can temporarily lower peak temperatures, their reduction through clean energy policies may increase heat wave intensity. It advocates for coordinated government responses, early warning systems, and capacity building to protect marginalized populations, such as slum dwellers and outdoor workers, who are most at risk.

The report investigates the 51°C record temperature in Phalodi, Rajasthan, on 19 May 2016. While annual mean temperatures in India are increasing, the analysis found that human-induced climate change did not play a statistically significant role in this specific event or a similar 2015 event in Andhra Pradesh. The authors suggest that the warming effect of greenhouse gases may be masked by the cooling effects of aerosols and increased irrigation. However, the report warns that as energy policies shift away from fossil fuels, the diminishing cooling effect of aerosols could increase the intensity of future heat waves.

The North Pole experienced unprecedented warmth in November and December 2016, with temperatures reaching 15 ºC above normal on November 11. Analysis using historical observations and climate models (CMIP5 and Weather@Home) indicates that such an event would have been extremely unlikely—with a probability of less than 0.1 percent per year—in a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The study highlights that Arctic amplification, driven by albedo-feedback and lapse-rate feedback, makes the region the fastest-warming on Earth. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), such extreme heat events are projected to become commonplace by approximately 2047, corresponding to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.

The analysis found that while human-induced climate change slightly increased the probability of the 2016 record-breaking heat in Rajasthan, the effect was not statistically significant. The study suggests that the warming effect of greenhouse gases in India is being partially offset by the cooling effects of aerosols and increased irrigation. Despite the lack of a strong temperature trend, the combination of high heat, pollution, and humidity is increasing the health risks and mortality associated with heat waves.

The study investigated the December 1, 2015, rainfall event in Chennai, where some stations recorded up to 494 mm of rain in 24 hours, causing an estimated US $3 billion in economic costs. Using observational data and regional climate models, researchers found no detectable effect of human-induced climate change on the probability of this extreme one-day rainfall. The analysis suggests that the cooling effect of aerosols in the western Bay of Bengal likely counteracted greenhouse gas warming, while non-anthropogenic factors, such as El Niño and sea surface temperature anomalies, played a more significant role.

The SAEMC project focuses on improving air quality management in South American megacities by establishing operational chemical weather forecasting and developing regional emission and climate change scenarios. Key achievements include the creation of an online emission database for cities such as Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Lima, Medellín, Santiago, and São Paulo, and the implementation of chemical weather forecasting for Santiago by the Chilean Weather Office. The project has also operationalized a linked climate modeling system for South America and is developing traffic and aerosol emission inventories for Bogotá, Buenos Aires, and São Paulo.

The report examines how agricultural fires in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly in Russia, Kazakhstan, and China, emit black carbon (soot) that travels to the Arctic. This soot reduces the albedo of snow and ice, accelerating melting and contributing to Arctic warming. The document argues that while these fires are smaller than forest fires, their smoldering nature produces higher concentrations of black carbon. It identifies Russia as the dominant springtime emitter and suggests mitigation strategies including shifting burning seasons, implementing biochar technology, and improving international fire management coordination.

The document identifies human activity—specifically the burning of fossil fuels and tropical deforestation—as the primary cause of global warming. It explains that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant driver of climate change due to its high radiative forcing and abundance, outweighing other heat-trapping gases and natural climate drivers like solar intensity. The text clarifies that the ozone hole is not a cause of global warming, though both result from human atmospheric alterations. Observed impacts include a 1°C increase in global average surface temperature since the pre-industrial age, rising sea levels, and ecological shifts such as thawing permafrost and altered species ranges.

The 27th SAC meeting in Toronto focused on the transition of leadership, with Juan Valdés and Maria Carmen Lemos appointed as President and Vice President. The committee established three specialized commissions to manage the science-policy interface, science integration, and governance. Key operational updates included the launch of an IDRC project on land use and biofuels, the planning of a colloquium on water resources in Mendoza, and the development of a science-policy proposal for CRN II projects. The SAC also prioritized improving the IAI's communication strategies and reaffirmed its commitment to scientific excellence and the development of the next generation of global change scientists within its strategic plan.

The document outlines Dr. James E. Hansen's testimony on climate change, highlighting that the United States is the largest source of CO2 emissions and that current 'Business-as-Usual' trends could lead to at least 5°C of warming by 2100. It warns of non-linear ice sheet disintegration in Greenland and West Antarctica, potentially causing sea level rises of 25±10 meters if warming reaches 2-3°C. Hansen argues that abrupt climate changes are practically certain under current emission trends, but an 'Alternative Scenario' could keep warming below 1°C if CO2 emissions are moderately reduced by mid-century and peak by 2100.

The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) has updated its Scientific Agenda to better reflect regional interests and the evolution of global change research. The agenda is organized into four broad themes: understanding climate variability in the Americas, conducting comparative studies of ecosystems and biodiversity, analyzing changes in the composition of the atmosphere and waters, and investigating the human dimensions and policy implications of global change. The IAI aims to promote cooperative research and information exchange to understand the integrated impact of past, present, and future global change on regional and continental environments in the Americas.

The IAI Science Agenda establishes a framework for collaborative research in the Americas, focusing on climate variability, ecosystem comparative studies, chemical composition of the environment, and the human dimensions of global change. It aims to advance understanding of the integrated impact of global change on regional and continental environments to inform public policy and sustainability.

The IAI Science Grant Program – Phase II (SGP-II) is a competitive funding initiative designed to support the development of multinational research networks addressing global change issues in the Americas. The program offers one-time awards of up to US$ 30,000 for projects lasting up to one year, with a specific priority on 'Integrated Assessment, Human Dimensions and Applications' (Theme IV) and the participation of young scientists. Eligible proposals must involve institutions from at least three IAI ratifying countries and align with the IAI Science Agenda's four primary themes: climate variability, ecosystem/biodiversity studies, atmospheric/oceanic composition, and integrated assessments.

The Fifth Meeting of the IAI Conference of the Parties (CoP) focused on updating the institute's scientific agenda, approving administrative budgets, and expanding financial resources. Key outcomes included the re-election of Director Armando Rabuffetti, the establishment of the Program to Expand Scientific Capacity in the Americas (PESCA), and the approval of a revised scientific agenda covering climate variability, ecosystem studies, atmospheric composition, and integrated assessments. The meeting also saw the election of a new Executive Committee and the signing of funding agreements with Argentina and Brazil.

The document details the implementation of twelve CRN II projects focused on environmental change, biodiversity, and climate risks across the Americas. Key activities include the establishment of research sites in countries such as Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, the development of geospatial databases for Caribbean coastal scenarios, and the analysis of tropical cyclones and paleotempestology. The IAI Directorate emphasizes interdisciplinary cooperation, such as linking biodiversity projects and integrating fishery information systems to improve policy relevance.

The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) was established in 1992 following the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development to conduct multinational collaborative research on global environmental change in the Americas. Its mission is to advance scientific understanding of these phenomena and their socioeconomic implications to support policy-makers in member countries. The IAI's Science Agenda focuses on two primary themes: understanding climate change and variability, and conducting comparative studies of ecosystems, biodiversity, land use, and water resources.