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The study finds that anthropogenic climate change approximately tripled the probability of the April 2026 heatwave in northwestern India and Pakistan, making it about 1°C hotter than it would have been in a preindustrial climate. Analysis indicates that extreme heat is occurring earlier in the season, with the likelihood and intensity of April events increasing more rapidly than those in May. This trend extends the period of dangerous heat exposure for hundreds of millions of people, compounding risks to health, agriculture, and the economy. The report also highlights systemic vulnerabilities, noting that heatwaves are not officially declared disasters in India and Pakistan, which limits access to relief funding.

On 19 May 2016, Phalodi, India, recorded an all-time record high temperature of 51°C. An analysis by the Raising Risk Awareness Project found that while annual mean temperatures across India are increasing and heat waves in some small areas are becoming more frequent and intense, human-induced climate change did not play a detectable role in this specific event or a similar one in Andhra Pradesh in May 2015. The study suggests this lack of a detectable trend might be caused by irrigation use and the masking effect of aerosols on warming.

The document discusses the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme heat events in India, highlighting the role of climate attribution science in identifying the human-induced causes of these events. It emphasizes that such science helps decision-makers create targeted heat action plans that account for vulnerability, exposure, and local factors like the urban heat island effect, air pollution, and humidity. The brief notes that while aerosols can temporarily lower peak temperatures, their reduction through clean energy policies may increase heat wave intensity. It advocates for coordinated government responses, early warning systems, and capacity building to protect marginalized populations, such as slum dwellers and outdoor workers, who are most at risk.

The report investigates the 51°C record temperature in Phalodi, Rajasthan, on 19 May 2016. While annual mean temperatures in India are increasing, the analysis found that human-induced climate change did not play a statistically significant role in this specific event or a similar 2015 event in Andhra Pradesh. The authors suggest that the warming effect of greenhouse gases may be masked by the cooling effects of aerosols and increased irrigation. However, the report warns that as energy policies shift away from fossil fuels, the diminishing cooling effect of aerosols could increase the intensity of future heat waves.

The research reviews the SDMPs of Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Odisha, and Uttarakhand, finding that while they provide a foundation for coordination, they overemphasize response and relief over prevention and risk reduction. The report recommends clarifying institutional responsibilities, innovating financing models, mainstreaming risk reduction across state departments, and better incorporating socioeconomic vulnerabilities and climate change risks into assessments.

The analysis found that while human-induced climate change slightly increased the probability of the 2016 record-breaking heat in Rajasthan, the effect was not statistically significant. The study suggests that the warming effect of greenhouse gases in India is being partially offset by the cooling effects of aerosols and increased irrigation. Despite the lack of a strong temperature trend, the combination of high heat, pollution, and humidity is increasing the health risks and mortality associated with heat waves.

The India-UK partnership focuses on making Indian cities climate-smart by integrating climate risk data into urban planning and infrastructure. Key initiatives include the 'Future Proofing Indian Cities' programme, which assessed 59 cities for environmental risks, and the 'Disaster Proofing Indian Smart Cities' project, which provides guidance on the resilience of Digital Information Technology (DIT). The partnership has delivered specific action plans and investment strategies for cities such as Mysore, Madurai, Bangalore, Aluva, and Kolkata, while also supporting the development of national Heat Action Plans to combat increasing extreme heat waves.

The document discusses the application of extreme event attribution to understand the role of climate change in specific weather events, using two Indian case studies to illustrate the complexities of vulnerability and the masking effects of aerosols.

The Raising Risk Awareness (RRA) project focused on applying extreme event attribution to understand the role of climate change in specific weather events in Ethiopia, India, and Kenya, while using the Surging Seas tool to assess coastal flooding risk in Bangladesh. The project sought to bridge the gap between science, communication, and policy to improve disaster risk management in developing countries.