Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate

This synthesis report details the Raising Risk Awareness (RRA) project, a pilot initiative designed to build capacity for extreme event attribution (EEA) and sea level rise risk analysis in developing countries. The project focused on Ethiopia, India, Kenya, and Bangladesh to bridge the gap between climate science, communication, and policy-making, helping stakeholders understand the role of human-induced climate change in specific extreme weather events to better manage future risks.

• The RRA project conducted extreme event attribution analyses for several events in Ethiopia, India, and Kenya, with varying results regarding the influence of climate change. In Ethiopia, the 2015 drought was exacerbated by El Niño, but "A measurable influence of climate change was not detected". In India, no measurable influence of climate change was detected for the December 2015 Chennai flooding or the May 2016 Phalodi heatwave, with the report noting that "aerosol pollution" may have masked the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. In Kenya, analysis of the 2016–2017 drought indicated that "higher than usual temperatures could be the result of human-induced climate change", although climate change did not strongly influence the lack of rainfall.
• In Bangladesh, the project focused on coastal flooding risks using the Surging Seas tool. The tool was adapted for the local context, including translation into Bengali and the development of techniques to improve coastal elevation modelling in data-poor regions. The project produced an exposure report estimating land and population at risk of inundation for the years 2050 and 2100 under different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
• The project identified a significant 'science–communications–policy gap', where scientific outputs are often not understandable or actionable for policy-makers. To address this, the RRA project emphasized the need to connect communicators with scientists early in the analysis process to balance "scientific precision and effective messaging". The report notes that in India, policy officials' interests are largely driven by media reports, making the engagement of journalists a critical pathway to influencing policy.
• Research on communicating attribution results revealed that preferences for describing probability and frequency vary by stakeholder and country. In Kenya, decision-makers and media preferred percentages for probability, while the public found them confusing. In India, the phrase "frequency–twice in a lifetime" was easiest for the public to understand, whereas in Kenya, the term "lifetime" was criticized because lifespans vary significantly based on socioeconomic status.
• The RRA project aimed to build local scientific capacity to ensure attribution results are perceived as legitimate and credible. This was achieved through workshops and science exchanges at the University of Oxford's Environmental Change Institute (ECI), where six scientists from Ethiopia, India, and Kenya were trained in attribution tools and scripts. The report argues that stakeholders are more likely to respond to analyses when they are "undertaken and communicated by local and trusted scientific experts and institutions".

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndbuilding, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Building capacity for risk management in a changing climate}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/RRA-project-synthesis-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }