Search Climate Insights Directory

The North Pole experienced unprecedented warmth in November and December 2016, with temperatures reaching 15 ºC above normal on November 11. Analysis using historical observations and climate models (CMIP5 and Weather@Home) indicates that such an event would have been extremely unlikely—with a probability of less than 0.1 percent per year—in a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The study highlights that Arctic amplification, driven by albedo-feedback and lapse-rate feedback, makes the region the fastest-warming on Earth. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), such extreme heat events are projected to become commonplace by approximately 2047, corresponding to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.