Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution

The North Pole experienced unprecedented warmth in November and December 2016, with temperatures reaching 15 ºC above normal on November 11. Analysis using historical observations and climate models (CMIP5 and Weather@Home) indicates that such an event would have been extremely unlikely—with a probability of less than 0.1 percent per year—in a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The study highlights that Arctic amplification, driven by albedo-feedback and lapse-rate feedback, makes the region the fastest-warming on Earth. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), such extreme heat events are projected to become commonplace by approximately 2047, corresponding to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.

• The North Pole and surrounding Arctic region experienced record-high temperatures and record-low sea ice extent in November and December 2016. On November 11, temperatures reached -7 ºC, which was 15 ºC above the normal for that date, and the monthly mean November temperature was 13 ºC above normal.
• Observational data and CMIP5 model ensembles suggest the 2016 event has a return period of approximately 50 to 200 years in the current climate. However, in the climate of a century ago, the probability of such an event was less than 0.1 percent per year, regardless of the phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
• Multi-method analysis using CMIP5 and Weather@Home simulations concludes that the 2016 warmth was extremely unlikely to occur without human-induced climate change. The Weather@Home 'natural' ensemble (with pre-industrial greenhouse gas levels) was over 4 ºC colder than the 'actual' 2016 ensemble.
• Under the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenario, extreme heat events like those of 2016 are projected to occur about 50% of the time by approximately 2047. This shift corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.
• Arctic amplification is driven by positive feedbacks, including the albedo-feedback, where dark land and ocean absorb more sunshine than white snow and ice, and the lapse-rate feedback, where radiative cooling is less efficient because warming is confined to the lower atmosphere.
• Extreme Arctic warmth has severe biological and social impacts, such as rain-on-snow events in the Yamal Peninsula that create ice crusts preventing reindeer from feeding. A single such event in 2013 caused the death of 61,000 reindeer, roughly 22 percent of the peninsula's herd.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2016). Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution. 2016. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution |date=21 December 2016 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2016unusually, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Unusually high temperatures at the North Pole, winter 2016 – World Weather Attribution}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2016}, month = dec, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/north-pole-nov-dec-2016/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }