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On 26 August 2026, a rock-ice avalanche at Langtang Lirung (5,150 m asl) triggered a massive debris flood that travelled 200 km into India, causing over 1,300 deaths and widespread destruction in Nepal. The event released energy equivalent to a M5.5 earthquake and moved at average speeds of 188 km/hr. While geological structure was the primary control, the report finds that human-caused climate change significantly increased the likelihood and intensity of the anomalous warmth preceding the failure. Specifically, temperatures in July and August were approximately 1.5°C higher due to climate change, contributing to permafrost degradation, glacial thinning, and a shift in the rain-snow transition. The report concludes that the magnitude and speed of the event exceeded the limits of existing early warning systems and adaptation measures, necessitating a focus on loss and damage recovery.

An event attribution study on the October 2025 floods in eastern Mexico found that the onset of La Niña heightened the likelihood and intensity of heavy rainfall. While climate models and observational datasets showed conflicting trends regarding the long-term impact of climate change on regional rainfall, the study emphasizes that vulnerability was amplified by rapid urbanization, informal settlements, and chronic underinvestment in indigenous and rural communities.

An event attribution study found that human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of the April 2025 extreme rainfall in the Central Mississippi river valley by approximately 40% and its intensity by 9%, though observational data suggests these increases could be as high as a factor of 2 to 5 in likelihood and 13-26% in intensity. The event caused at least 24 fatalities and estimated economic damages between $80 and $90 billion, with significant agricultural losses in Arkansas. The study highlights that while climate change amplified the event, effective early warnings from the US National Weather Service prevented a larger catastrophe, despite current staffing shortages in NWS field offices.

The study analysed peak 48-hour rainfall in Te Matau-a-Māui and Te Tairāwhiti during February 2023. Historical weather station data (1979-2023) suggests the 2-day maximum rainfall is now approximately 30% more intense and four times more likely to occur than if the climate had not warmed by 1.2C. However, climate models showed a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity, creating a discrepancy that prevents the researchers from quantifying the overall role of human-induced climate change with certainty. The report notes that 225,000 homes lost power and the event caused multi-billion dollar damages, comparable to the 2011 Waitaha earthquakes.

An event attribution study found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood and intensity of the extreme rainfall that hit eastern Northeast Brazil in May 2022, causing over 133 deaths and displacing at least 25,000 people. While the events were exceptionally rare—with a 1-in-500 to 1-in-1000 annual chance in the current climate—they would have been approximately 20% less intense in a world without human-induced warming. The study highlights that pre-existing structural vulnerabilities, such as unplanned urbanization in low-income neighborhoods and an infrastructure deficit, exacerbated the disaster's impact.

The analysis concludes that while Hurricane Harvey was an extremely rare event, global warming increased the intensity of its precipitation by approximately 15% and made such an event about three times more likely. Observational data and climate models indicate a trend of increasing extreme precipitation along the US Gulf Coast, often exceeding the standard Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. The study emphasizes that while the storm's rarity makes it difficult to attribute its existence to climate change, the increased rainfall intensity contributed significantly to the flooding in Houston, which was further exacerbated by urban development and subsidence.

The North Pole experienced unprecedented warmth in November and December 2016, with temperatures reaching 15 ºC above normal on November 11. Analysis using historical observations and climate models (CMIP5 and Weather@Home) indicates that such an event would have been extremely unlikely—with a probability of less than 0.1 percent per year—in a climate without human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols. The study highlights that Arctic amplification, driven by albedo-feedback and lapse-rate feedback, makes the region the fastest-warming on Earth. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5), such extreme heat events are projected to become commonplace by approximately 2047, corresponding to a global mean temperature increase of 2 to 3 ºC above pre-industrial levels.

The study concludes that greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions contributed to the increased intensity and probability of heavy rainfall during the 2022 tropical storm events in Madagascar, Mozambique, and Malawi. While Tropical Storm Ana was a rare 1-in-50-year event for Mozambique and Malawi, Cyclone Batsirai was a more common 1-in-2-year event for Madagascar. The humanitarian impact was severely amplified by compound factors, including preceding floods, existing droughts in southern Madagascar, and high socio-economic vulnerability. Despite accurate forecasting by regional meteorological centers, infrastructure damage and a lack of trust in warnings hindered effective responses.