Climate change increased heavy rainfall hitting vulnerable communities in eastern Northeast Brazil

An event attribution study found that human-caused climate change increased the likelihood and intensity of the extreme rainfall that hit eastern Northeast Brazil in May 2022, causing over 133 deaths and displacing at least 25,000 people. While the events were exceptionally rare—with a 1-in-500 to 1-in-1000 annual chance in the current climate—they would have been approximately 20% less intense in a world without human-induced warming. The study highlights that pre-existing structural vulnerabilities, such as unplanned urbanization in low-income neighborhoods and an infrastructure deficit, exacerbated the disaster's impact.

• Extreme rainfall in May 2022 led to widespread floods and landslides in eastern Northeast Brazil, resulting in at least 133 deaths and the displacement of at least 25,000 people. In the state of Pernambuco, more than 70% of the typical May rainfall occurred within a 24-hour period on 27-28 May.
• The 7-day and 15-day rainfall events were exceptionally rare in the current climate, which has warmed by approximately 1.2°C due to human activities, with annual probabilities of roughly 1-in-500 and 1-in-1000 respectively.
• Human-caused climate change increased the likelihood of these events and their intensity; rainfall of this rarity would have been approximately 20% less intense in a climate not warmed by human activities.
• The severity of the disaster was exacerbated by structural vulnerabilities, including an infrastructure deficit and unplanned urbanization in low-income neighborhoods on hillslopes and in low-lying flood-prone areas.
• While climate models showed systematic errors in precipitation magnitudes for this specific small-scale event, the combination of observations and physical climate understanding confirms that human-caused climate change contributed to the increased likelihood and intensity of the May 2022 rainfall.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2022). Climate change increased heavy rainfall hitting vulnerable communities in eastern Northeast Brazil. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-heavy-rainfall-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-eastern-northeast-brazil/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Climate change increased heavy rainfall hitting vulnerable communities in eastern Northeast Brazil. 2022. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-heavy-rainfall-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-eastern-northeast-brazil/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Climate change increased heavy rainfall hitting vulnerable communities in eastern Northeast Brazil |date=4 July 2022 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-heavy-rainfall-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-eastern-northeast-brazil/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2022climate, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Climate change increased heavy rainfall hitting vulnerable communities in eastern Northeast Brazil}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-heavy-rainfall-hitting-vulnerable-communities-in-eastern-northeast-brazil/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }