The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s east coast

The study analysed peak 48-hour rainfall in Te Matau-a-Māui and Te Tairāwhiti during February 2023. Historical weather station data (1979-2023) suggests the 2-day maximum rainfall is now approximately 30% more intense and four times more likely to occur than if the climate had not warmed by 1.2C. However, climate models showed a much smaller change in likelihood and intensity, creating a discrepancy that prevents the researchers from quantifying the overall role of human-induced climate change with certainty. The report notes that 225,000 homes lost power and the event caused multi-billion dollar damages, comparable to the 2011 Waitaha earthquakes.

• There is a discrepancy between historical observations and climate model results; the models showed a significantly smaller change in the intensity and likelihood of extreme rainfall, meaning the overall role of human-induced climate change cannot be quantified.
• Cyclone Gabrielle caused multi-billion dollar impacts, with 225,000 homes losing energy during the storm's peak, making the damages comparable to the 2011 Waitaha earthquakes.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2023). The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s east coast. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/the-role-of-climate-change-in-extreme-rainfall-associated-with-cyclone-gabrielle-over-aotearoa-new-zealands-east-coast/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s east coast. 2023. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/the-role-of-climate-change-in-extreme-rainfall-associated-with-cyclone-gabrielle-over-aotearoa-new-zealands-east-coast/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s east coast |date=14 March 2023 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/the-role-of-climate-change-in-extreme-rainfall-associated-with-cyclone-gabrielle-over-aotearoa-new-zealands-east-coast/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2023role, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{The role of climate change in extreme rainfall associated with Cyclone Gabrielle over Aotearoa New Zealand’s east coast}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/the-role-of-climate-change-in-extreme-rainfall-associated-with-cyclone-gabrielle-over-aotearoa-new-zealands-east-coast/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }