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The document analyzes the drivers of zoonotic disease emergence, emphasizing the role of human-animal-environment interfaces. It identifies land-use change, agricultural intensification, and wildlife trade as primary direct drivers that increase human exposure to pathogens. The brief proposes a systems approach to identify leverage points for intervention, such as regulating high-risk wildlife taxa in markets and re-engineering food supply chains, while warning against rushed interventions that could undermine food security or drive illegal trade. It also examines the role of climate change in expanding the range of endemic diseases and explores future scenarios for human health and conservation.

The document examines the potential for electric vehicles (EVs) to transform the economic trajectories of Southern African states, specifically within the SADC region. It highlights the risks of remaining reactive—such as becoming a 'dumping ground' for obsolete internal combustion engine technology—and proposes a 'Green New Deal' for the region. The authors advocate for the integration of Fourth Industrial Revolution technologies, such as blockchain for ethical mineral sourcing, the development of regional battery value chains, and the deployment of decentralized renewable energy grids to support e-mobility.

The report analyzes the fragile political alliance between President Felix Tshisekedi's CACH coalition and former President Joseph Kabila's FCC, which dominates the DRC's parliament. It identifies key priorities for the 2019–2023 period, including reforming the CENI and Constitutional Court, addressing socio-economic needs, and stabilizing the eastern DRC. The author presents several scenarios ranging from a best-case transition to democracy to a fragmentation and chaos scenario, while emphasizing the role of the international community and regional neighbors in supporting transformational change.

The report details research and stakeholder discussions regarding the under-utilization of specialty crops in the US. It highlights significant in-field losses—such as 50% for fresh tomatoes and 36% on average for crops in North Carolina—driven by strict cosmetic standards and economic barriers. The document outlines four envisioned future states: implementing full-cost accounting for food, increasing ubiquitous access to healthy produce, integrating regional food systems with industrial agriculture, and removing food safety barriers to donation. It concludes with a practical example of 'concurrent harvesting' used by Imperfect Produce to create markets for 'seconds'.

The document argues that South Africa is stuck in a middle-income trap characterized by sluggish growth, deep inequality, and declining government effectiveness. It suggests a paradigm shift away from a state-led developmental model toward a labour-intensive, low-wage growth path and a knowledge economy built on private sector partnerships and technological innovation.

The report identifies that while the Swedish transmission grid operator, Svenska Kraftnät, is a primary driver for grid development, most drivers are indirect, such as EU climate policy and the need to integrate wind power. Key barriers include a complex and ambiguous concession process, local resistance based on land-use and health concerns, and passive government governance. The study finds that current planned projects generally align with the geographic needs identified by the NORSTRAT project, though there are discrepancies in wind power production assumptions between the TSO and industry estimates.

The document details the application of the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model to the Otún river basin in Colombia to assess water supply and demand under climate change. It identifies the Corporación Autónoma de Risaralda (CARDER) as the primary institutional manager and calculates a total water demand of 10.35 m3/s for human consumption, energy generation, and environmental flows. A key finding is the critical role of the páramo ecosystem, which provides a relatively constant water flow and contributes up to 60% of the flow at Nuevo Libaré during low-flow months like August.

The report examines the ICT and Internet policy landscape in Togo, highlighting a history of political instability that hindered early policy development. Through surveys and workshops, it identifies critical needs for affordable broadband, cyber security laws, and inclusive multistakeholder dialogue. It argues that the Internet can drive sustainable development in Togo's phosphate and agriculture sectors if supported by proactive government coordination and private sector investment.

The document outlines the strategic outlook for the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), identifying critical drivers such as the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations and the stability of the revenue-sharing pool. It proposes four scenarios: 'Laduma!' (deepened integration), 'Own Goal' (fracture but continued financial support), 'Red Card' (collapse and financial withdrawal), and 'Wild Card' (deepened integration despite reduced financial transfers).

The report analyzes the complex relationship between Egypt and the Sudan (North and South) ahead of the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum. It highlights Egypt's strategic interests in Nile water security, regional stability, and trade, while warning that a flawed referendum or failed secession negotiations could lead to renewed civil war or state collapse. The document argues that Egypt must move beyond its preference for Sudanese unity to constructively engage with both Northern and Southern Sudanese entities to ensure a peaceful transition and maintain its influence in the Nile Basin.

The document analyzes the energy profiles, infrastructure, and security perspectives of Canada, the United States, and Mexico, highlighting their deep interdependence. It examines existing trilateral and bilateral cooperation frameworks, such as NAFTA and the U.S.-Canada Clean Energy Dialogue, and identifies potential trade irritants like border adjustments and low-carbon fuel standards. The author proposes three climate policy scenarios for 2020, concluding that a 'bottom-up' approach with increasing linkages between Canadian and U.S. cap-and-trade systems is the most likely outcome.

The report examines the complexities of agricultural development in Southern Africa, highlighting the need for increased investment in infrastructure and the potential role of genetically modified organisms and supermarket cold chains. It notes the possibility of investment relocation driven by global climate mitigation policies, while warning of climate protectionism and the direct impacts of climate change. The document also emphasizes the need for transparent terms for foreign land access and the potential of Malawi's input subsidy model.

The document explores how critical uncertainties in Internet governance, infrastructure, and security intersect with four global scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG). It argues that the evolution of the Internet is not neutral but can either hinder or advance global sustainability. Through a series of workshops, the authors developed four 'storylines'—Policy Reform, Unregulated Market, VIPnet, and Internet Commons—to illustrate how different trajectories of Internet development align with different global futures. The report emphasizes the need for a multistakeholder governance model to ensure the Internet serves as a global commons that supports environmental repair and social equity.

The report analyzes the complex political economy of Southern African agriculture, identifying governance and external financing as the primary uncertainties affecting the region's future. Through a stakeholder workshop in Harare, four distinct scenarios were developed, ranging from a high-investment, high-policy-quality future ('I believe I can fly') to a state of total failure ('This is the end'). The authors argue that while the region currently sits in a precarious position characterized by poor domestic policy and weak state capacity, there are opportunities to pivot toward growth through improved infrastructure, transparent land tenure management, and the strategic adoption of agricultural technologies like GMOs.

The paper argues that the current trend of African countries belonging to multiple regional entities simultaneously is unsustainable, particularly as these groups move from free trade areas to customs unions. Because a country cannot realistically apply two different common external tariffs, overlapping memberships create legal contradictions and increased transaction costs. The author proposes four potential scenarios for rationalisation: equal sharing of members, a merger of SACU and SADC, the dominance of COMESA, or the creation of a single large regional trading bloc aligned with the African Union's goal of an African Economic Community by 2025.

The report uses scenario planning to analyze the uncertainties surrounding the WTO Doha Round and Southern Africa's trade relations. It identifies key driving forces and uncertainties, developing multiple scenarios for the multilateral trade talks, intra-regional integration (SADC, SACU, Comesa, EAC), and external relations with the US and EU. The document outlines 'preferred futures' and provides roadmaps with milestones to achieve them, emphasizing the need for proactive policy adjustments and strategic alliances.

India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth and a corresponding surge in energy consumption, leading to an increasing reliance on imported oil, primarily from the Persian Gulf. Both nations are pursuing similar strategies to mitigate this vulnerability: diversifying import sources, acquiring equity oil through overseas investments, building strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), and shifting toward natural gas and nuclear power. While there are efforts toward Sino-Indian energy cooperation, such as joint bids for oilfields in third countries, competition remains high, particularly in contested areas like Burma. The report outlines three future scenarios: 'Increased cooperation,' 'Conflict in East Asia' (centered on Taiwan and Japan), and 'The Middle East explodes' (a full-scale resource war). It recommends that Norway support energy efficiency, clean coal and gas technologies, and the inclusion of China and India in the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a pariah state to a regional hegemon and global middle power, examining its macroeconomic shifts, socio-economic challenges, and foreign policy. It details South Africa's engagement with the WTO, the AU, and the EU, while highlighting domestic risks such as HIV/AIDS, unemployment, and political succession. The paper concludes by proposing three future scenarios for South Africa and corresponding strategies for German development cooperation.

The document argues that a lasting global climate solution post-2030 must integrate a cap-and-trade scheme, technology development agreements, and assistance for developing countries. It contrasts a "Cap First" strategy, which prioritizes binding emissions targets, with an "Empower First" strategy, which emphasizes creating an enabling environment through technology and development cooperation. The authors suggest that while the Kyoto Protocol established a market value for carbon, future success depends on overcoming political stalemates, re-engaging the US through flexible compliance mechanisms, and implementing equitable target-setting based on countries' levels of development.

The report examines the impact of natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean on the geopolitics of Cyprus. It details the conflicting maritime claims between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Turkey, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), while analyzing the economic viability of various export options including LNG and pipelines. The authors conclude that the most likely future is a continuation of the status quo, where the RoC's ability to exploit gas remains heavily dependent on Israeli export decisions and the absence of a political settlement with Turkey.