How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa?

The report analyzes the complex political economy of Southern African agriculture, identifying governance and external financing as the primary uncertainties affecting the region's future. Through a stakeholder workshop in Harare, four distinct scenarios were developed, ranging from a high-investment, high-policy-quality future ('I believe I can fly') to a state of total failure ('This is the end'). The authors argue that while the region currently sits in a precarious position characterized by poor domestic policy and weak state capacity, there are opportunities to pivot toward growth through improved infrastructure, transparent land tenure management, and the strategic adoption of agricultural technologies like GMOs.

• Southern Africa is highly vulnerable to food insecurity and high food prices despite having a favorable climate and abundant land, and it lags behind other global regions in agricultural investment.
• Agriculture is a critical economic driver in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), directly employing an average of 53.8% of the working population and accounting for approximately 13% of total regional export earnings.
• The report identifies two primary axes of uncertainty for the region's agricultural future: the quality of domestic agricultural policy and the availability of external investment funds.
• Stakeholders concluded that the region is currently situated in the most undesirable scenario, 'This is the end', characterized by hopeless domestic policy and a lack of investment funds.
• There is a medium-term possibility for increased investment in African agriculture as the World Bank and regional governments have recognized historic underinvestment as a problem.
• Transparent and sustainable terms for foreign access to land are essential due to the high political sensitivity of land tenure in the region.
• Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are identified as having major potential to increase agricultural yields and 'climate proof' crops, though the risks of farmer dependency on foreign seed providers must be managed.
• The growth of supermarkets and cold chain infrastructure could significantly boost regional agriculture if managed to benefit local producers rather than just importers.
• Climate change presents a dual risk of direct weather impacts and policy-driven protectionism, but it may also create opportunities for investment relocation from the developed world.
• Inefficient internal markets and transport bottlenecks are significant negative drivers that require government investment in infrastructure and regional trading arrangements to resolve.

APA

Draper, P., Kiratu, S., & Hichert, T. (2009). How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_south_africa.pdf

Chicago

Draper, Peter, Sheila Kiratu, and Tanja Hichert. How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_south_africa.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Draper |first1=Peter |last2=Kiratu |first2=Sheila |last3=Hichert |first3=Tanja |title=How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_south_africa.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{draper2009how, author = {Draper, Peter and Kiratu, Sheila and Hichert, Tanja}, title = {{How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa?}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/agriculture_south_africa.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }