Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan

The report analyzes the complex relationship between Egypt and the Sudan (North and South) ahead of the 2011 Southern Sudan referendum. It highlights Egypt's strategic interests in Nile water security, regional stability, and trade, while warning that a flawed referendum or failed secession negotiations could lead to renewed civil war or state collapse. The document argues that Egypt must move beyond its preference for Sudanese unity to constructively engage with both Northern and Southern Sudanese entities to ensure a peaceful transition and maintain its influence in the Nile Basin.

• Secession of Southern Sudan is viewed as inevitable by the report's contributors and Egypt, despite official Egyptian preferences for unity. The outcome of the 2011 referendum is expected to be a 'Yes' vote for independence.
• The 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) succeeded in stopping the war between the Government of Sudan and the SPLM/A, but it is described as a 'cease-fire' because it postponed difficult issues for future negotiations.
• Egypt's primary strategic concern is the security of Nile waters, as 95% of its population lives in the Nile Valley and depends on the river for almost all water needs.
• There is a significant conflict between Egypt and Sudan on one side and other riparian states on the other regarding the 1929 and 1959 Nile Waters Agreements, which upstream countries argue are invalid colonial-era relics.
• The Jonglei Canal project is identified as a potential tool for technical and political cooperation between Egypt, North Sudan, and South Sudan, though its resumption remains contentious in the South.
• Egypt faces a security risk if the Khartoum regime reverts to radical Islamism following Southern secession, which would create a hostile Islamist presence to Egypt's south.
• The report identifies four potential post-CPA scenarios: successful negotiations leading to peaceful secession, failed negotiations leading to a unilateral declaration of independence, a limited North-South war, or a protracted full-scale war resulting in state disintegration.
• Egypt has attempted to influence the South through development aid, including a $300 million grant for water and electricity projects, to ensure the new state remains cooperative regarding Nile water rights.
• A long-standing border dispute over the Halayib area remains unresolved and serves as a barometer for the overall state of Egyptian-Sudanese relations.

APA

Høigilt, J., & Rolandsen, Ø. H. (2010). Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ed398612-06de-414e-9a8c-9fdcce382c90/Sudan-Egypt-Relations-PRIO-Policy-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Høigilt, Jacob, and Øystein H. Rolandsen. Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2010. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ed398612-06de-414e-9a8c-9fdcce382c90/Sudan-Egypt-Relations-PRIO-Policy-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Høigilt |first1=Jacob |last2=Rolandsen |first2=Øystein H. |title=Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=2010 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ed398612-06de-414e-9a8c-9fdcce382c90/Sudan-Egypt-Relations-PRIO-Policy-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{higilt2010making, author = {Høigilt, Jacob and Rolandsen, Øystein H.}, title = {{Making Cooperation Attractive: Post-referendum Relations between Egypt and the Sudan}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2010}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/ed398612-06de-414e-9a8c-9fdcce382c90/Sudan-Egypt-Relations-PRIO-Policy-Paper-2010.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }