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This report by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the trajectories of political violence in Sudan and South Sudan following the signing of the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS). Using ACLED and UCDP GED data, it examines whether these agreements resolved, reshaped, or perpetuated violence, concluding that while the CPA ended a long civil war, it left other conflict systems unaddressed and reinforced a pattern of state-led political violence. In South Sudan, the ARCSS is described as having failed due to poor implementation and a 'winner-takes-all' political framework that incentivized continued violent competition for power.

This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies examines South Africa's post-conflict development and peacebuilding engagements in South Sudan. It highlights the historical ties between the ANC and SPLM, evaluates various capacity-building and economic interventions, and argues for a more coordinated, strategic approach aligned with African Union frameworks to ensure sustainable impact and local ownership.

This research paper analyzes Ethiopia's foreign policy and domestic transition following the death of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. It argues that while Ethiopia has maintained economic growth and regional security stability, its ability to play a more strategic and transformational role in the Horn of Africa is hindered by a gap between its stated democratic doctrines and its domestic political reality.

This December 2011 report by the Institute for Security Studies provides security analyses and early warning assessments for the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC). It focuses on the fragile post-election landscape in Liberia, escalating border conflicts and humanitarian crises between Sudan and South Sudan, the expanding threat of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) across the Sahel, and political instability in Burundi. Additionally, it examines the partnership and occasional divergences between the PSC and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).

The August 2011 PSC Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides an analysis of early warning issues for the African Union Peace and Security Council, focusing heavily on the security challenges facing the newly independent Republic of South Sudan and the ongoing civil war in Libya. It also reviews outcomes from the 17th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly in Malabo and discusses the development of a common African position on the UN Arms Trade Treaty.

One year after hosting the 2010 FIFA World Cup, South Africa is urged to leverage the 'soft power' and international prestige gained from the event to address 'hard' geopolitical issues in Africa. The author suggests utilizing South Africa's roles in SADC, the AU, and the UNSC to resolve stalemates in Zimbabwe and Madagascar, and to address conflicts in Somalia, Darfur, and Abyei, while pushing for more decisive African-led solutions to avoid Western intervention as seen in Libya and Cote d’Ivoire.

The June 2011 PSC Report by the Institute for Security Studies provides early warning analysis on security crises in South Sudan, Uganda, and Madagascar, alongside a retrospective on African border disputes and an examination of drug trafficking in West Africa.

This research paper by Petrus de Kock for the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) examines the historical and contemporary drivers of conflict in Sudan, focusing on the relationship between the central state in Khartoum and its marginalised peripheries. Written in June 2011, the document analyzes how the struggle for both high-level resources (oil) and low-level subsistence resources (land and water) has shaped the country's political landscape, leading to two civil wars and the eventual independence of Southern Sudan in July 2011.

This policy briefing examines how the governance of oil resources contributed to the secession of Southern Sudan. It argues that the failure of the National Congress Party (NCP) to ensure fair revenue sharing, transparency, and local community development convinced Southern Sudanese that they would benefit more from an independent state than from a united Sudan.

This research paper analyzes the geopolitical and economic complexities surrounding the potential independence of Southern Sudan following its 2011 referendum. It highlights the critical interdependence between Juba and Khartoum, particularly regarding oil infrastructure, border demarcation, and regional stability in the Nile Basin.

This report summarizes a roundtable seminar hosted by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) on January 13, 2011, regarding the political implications of the Southern Sudan referendum. The discussion focused on the interdependence of Northern and Southern Sudan, specifically concerning oil revenues, water resources in the Nile basin, and the challenges of state-building and border security.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies analyzes the security challenges and potential scenarios surrounding the January 9, 2011, referendum on South Sudan's right to secede from Sudan. It examines the political dynamics between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the risks of a return to war, and the roles of regional and international actors in maintaining stability during the transition.

This briefing analyzes the upcoming January 9, 2011, referendum in Sudan and the separate plebiscite in the Abyei region to determine whether South Sudan will secede. It examines the tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), the challenges of state viability for a potential new South Sudanese state, and the role of international mediators in preventing a return to armed conflict.

This document is a seminar report from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) regarding a presentation by Mr. Mohammed Hasan on the political situation in Sudan as of August 2009, focusing on elections, the Abyei region, and the conflict in Darfur.

This briefing from the Institute for Security Studies evaluates the fragile implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in Sudan as of May 2007. It details significant failures in security arrangements, the lack of a functioning population census, and the political tensions between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) ahead of planned national elections.

This briefing by the Institute for Security Studies examines the state of Sudan eighteen months after the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) on 5 January 2005. It analyzes the fragility of the alliance between the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement (SPLM), the impact of Dr. John Garang's death on the 'New Sudan' vision, and the critical challenges regarding the demarcation of the Abyei boundary. The document highlights how peripheral regions like Darfur and the Beja area continue to experience instability, threatening the overall implementation of the peace process.

This policy briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs analyzes the 2011 referendum in Southern Sudan and the mediation efforts led by former South African President Thabo Mbeki. It examines the potential post-referendum scenarios, the internal challenges facing Southern Sudan, and the broader implications for the African Union regarding colonial borders and secession.