How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? Making Sense of Complexity

This report examines the complexities of agriculture and food security in Southern Africa, identifying key drivers such as the potential for increased investment, the role of supermarkets and cold chains, and the impact of climate mitigation policies in developed nations. It highlights the potential of Genetically Modified Organisms for 'climate proofing' crops and discusses the need for infrastructure investment and transparent land access terms for foreign entities. Additionally, it notes Malawi's use of input subsidies as a potential model for the region.

• Investment in African agriculture may increase in the medium term because the World Bank and regional governments have recognized historic underinvestment as a problem, provided the current liquidity crunch is resolved quickly.
• The expansion of food manufacturers and supermarkets, including their associated cold chains, could significantly benefit regional agriculture if managed proactively and in the region's interests.
• Climate mitigation policies in developed and major developing countries could lead to investment relocation and a virtuous investment cycle in the medium term, though this is threatened by climate protectionism and the direct impacts of climate change on agriculture.
• Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) are identified as having significant potential to increase agricultural yields and 'climate proof' crops, suggesting a need for a non-emotional debate on their costs and benefits.
• To address inefficient internal markets and promote trade, the report suggests increasing infrastructure investment and establishing regional trading arrangements to link surplus and deficit regions.
• Malawi has used input subsidies to increase domestic agricultural production; while there are concerns regarding the fiscal sustainability of this donor-funded program, it is viewed as a model for the region to explore.

APA

Hichert,, P. D. K. (2009). How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? Making Sense of Complexity. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/how-might-agriculture-develop-southern-africa-making-sense-complexity

Chicago

Hichert,, Peter Draper,Sheila Kiratu,Tanja. How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? Making Sense of Complexity. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/how-might-agriculture-develop-southern-africa-making-sense-complexity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hichert, |first1=Peter Draper,Sheila Kiratu,Tanja |title=How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? Making Sense of Complexity |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=25 June 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/how-might-agriculture-develop-southern-africa-making-sense-complexity |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hichert2009how, author = {Hichert,, Peter Draper,Sheila Kiratu,Tanja}, title = {{How Might Agriculture Develop in Southern Africa? Making Sense of Complexity}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/how-might-agriculture-develop-southern-africa-making-sense-complexity}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }