Where to next? Future steps of the global climate regime

The document argues that a lasting global climate solution post-2030 must integrate a cap-and-trade scheme, technology development agreements, and assistance for developing countries. It contrasts a "Cap First" strategy, which prioritizes binding emissions targets, with an "Empower First" strategy, which emphasizes creating an enabling environment through technology and development cooperation. The authors suggest that while the Kyoto Protocol established a market value for carbon, future success depends on overcoming political stalemates, re-engaging the US through flexible compliance mechanisms, and implementing equitable target-setting based on countries' levels of development.

• A sustainable long-term global climate solution after 2030 requires three integrated components: a cap-and-trade system, an agreement for technology development, and a financial assistance package for developing nations.
• The authors identify two primary strategic paths: "Cap First," which focuses on broadening absolute binding caps, and "Empower First," which prioritizes technology and development cooperation to create an environment conducive to a future cap-and-trade regime.
• To re-engage the United States without requiring Senate ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, the regime could allow the use of allowances from non-party domestic trading systems for compliance and permit non-parties to participate in governing bodies like the CDM Executive Board.
• Current carbon market price signals (between 5 and 10 € per tonne of CO2) are insufficient to drive the R&D needed for nascent technologies, necessitating additional policies to foster innovation.
• Technological innovation typically occurs at national or regional levels through public-private interaction rather than global treaties; the creation of "niche markets" by a few powerful countries is often the primary driver of global diffusion.
• Effective global participation requires an equitable target-setting framework where commitments are linked to a country's development stage, responsibility, and capability, rather than arbitrary targets.
• Official Development Assistance (ODA) is insufficient on its own to fund climate mitigation; the most significant impact will come from maturing private investment and market opportunities, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM).

APA

Sugiyama, T., Tangen, K., Hasselknippe, H., Michaelowa, A., Drexhage, J., Pan, J., Sinton, J., & Moe, A. (2004). Where to next? Future steps of the global climate regime. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_where_to_next.pdf

Chicago

Sugiyama, Taishi, Kristian Tangen, Henrik Hasselknippe, Axel Michaelowa, John Drexhage, Jiahua Pan, Jonathan Sinton, and Arild Moe. Where to next? Future steps of the global climate regime. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2004. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_where_to_next.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Sugiyama |first1=Taishi |last2=Tangen |first2=Kristian |last3=Hasselknippe |first3=Henrik |last4=Michaelowa |first4=Axel |last5=Drexhage |first5=John |last6=Pan |first6=Jiahua |last7=Sinton |first7=Jonathan |last8=Moe |first8=Arild |title=Where to next? Future steps of the global climate regime |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=14 December 2004 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_where_to_next.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{sugiyama2004where, author = {Sugiyama, Taishi and Tangen, Kristian and Hasselknippe, Henrik and Michaelowa, Axel and Drexhage, John and Pan, Jiahua and Sinton, Jonathan and Moe, Arild}, title = {{Where to next? Future steps of the global climate regime}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2004}, month = dec, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/climate_where_to_next.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }