A Pending Crisis of Overlap

The paper argues that the current trend of African countries belonging to multiple regional entities simultaneously is unsustainable, particularly as these groups move from free trade areas to customs unions. Because a country cannot realistically apply two different common external tariffs, overlapping memberships create legal contradictions and increased transaction costs. The author proposes four potential scenarios for rationalisation: equal sharing of members, a merger of SACU and SADC, the dominance of COMESA, or the creation of a single large regional trading bloc aligned with the African Union's goal of an African Economic Community by 2025.

• Overlapping membership in regional entities is described as an "unsustainable situation" because African countries often belong to four or more groups at once, which increases transaction costs for governments and businesses.
• The transition from free trade areas (FTAs) to customs unions (CUs) creates a critical conflict because while FTAs allow autonomous external trade agreements, CUs require a common external tariff that precludes such autonomy.
• Existing treaties among regional blocs are often in direct contradiction; for example, the SACU agreement prohibits members from entering new third-party agreements without consent, which limits the ability of members like Swaziland to negotiate with COMESA.
• Overlapping memberships have complicated Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) negotiations with the European Union, forcing southern African countries to form new, ad hoc groups for negotiation purposes.
• The author outlines four rationalisation scenarios: 'Equal sharing' (fragmented but fair distribution), 'SADC, SACU merge' (expansion of SACU to incorporate SADC), 'Strong COMESA' (COMESA becoming the dominant regional group), and 'One happy family' (harmonisation into one large bloc leading toward the African Economic Community).

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2008). A Pending Crisis of Overlap. https://saiia.org.za/research/a-pending-crisis-of-overlap/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. A Pending Crisis of Overlap. 2008. https://saiia.org.za/research/a-pending-crisis-of-overlap/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=A Pending Crisis of Overlap |date=28 April 2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/a-pending-crisis-of-overlap/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2008pending, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{A Pending Crisis of Overlap}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, month = apr, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/a-pending-crisis-of-overlap/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }