Mapping the Future of the Internet onto Global Scenarios

The document explores how critical uncertainties in Internet governance, infrastructure, and security intersect with four global scenarios developed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG). It argues that the evolution of the Internet is not neutral but can either hinder or advance global sustainability. Through a series of workshops, the authors developed four 'storylines'—Policy Reform, Unregulated Market, VIPnet, and Internet Commons—to illustrate how different trajectories of Internet development align with different global futures. The report emphasizes the need for a multistakeholder governance model to ensure the Internet serves as a global commons that supports environmental repair and social equity.

• The report identifies a gap in existing sustainability scenarios, noting that the role of the Internet is often viewed as neutral or narrowly focused on economic implications, failing to account for its impact on governance, social development, and environmental management.
• The 'Policy Reform' scenario envisions a market-based Internet model supported by strong government policies to harmonize growth with social and environmental goals, including a 'digital solidarity fund' (a 1–2 per cent e-commerce tax) to subsidize universal access.
• In the 'Unregulated Market' scenario, the absence of intellectual property protections and competition law leads to a cycle of innovation and stagnation, where the digital divide widens because there is no business case for providing universal access to the poor.
• The 'VIPnet' scenario (corresponding to the Fortress World scenario) describes a future where the Internet ceases to be a public network and is restricted to a small elite, with high security and biometric data used to prevent non-elites from accessing the network.
• The 'Internet Commons' scenario represents the most sustainable path, where a multistakeholder governance model and new intellectual property regimes create a global commons, achieving planet-wide wireless coverage and a zero environmental footprint.
• The report highlights critical Internet uncertainties across five layers: content and services (e.g., network neutrality), infrastructure (e.g., IPv4 to IPv6 transition), decision-making processes (e.g., ICANN), security (e.g., cloud computing risks), and ecological footprint (e.g., data centre energy use and e-waste).

APA

Creech, H., Andjelkovic, M., Vetter, T., MacLean, D., Rothman, D., & Vergragt, P. J. (2009). Mapping the Future of the Internet onto Global Scenarios. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/internet_global_scenarios.pdf

Chicago

Creech, Heather, Maja Andjelkovic, Tony Vetter, Don MacLean, Dale Rothman, and Philip J. Vergragt. Mapping the Future of the Internet onto Global Scenarios. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/internet_global_scenarios.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{creech2009mapping, author = {Creech, Heather and Andjelkovic, Maja and Vetter, Tony and MacLean, Don and Rothman, Dale and Vergragt, Philip J.}, title = {{Mapping the Future of the Internet onto Global Scenarios}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jan, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/publications/internet_global_scenarios.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }