Layout 1

The report examines the impact of natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean on the geopolitics of Cyprus. It details the conflicting maritime claims between the Republic of Cyprus (RoC), Turkey, and the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC), while analyzing the economic viability of various export options including LNG and pipelines. The authors conclude that the most likely future is a continuation of the status quo, where the RoC's ability to exploit gas remains heavily dependent on Israeli export decisions and the absence of a political settlement with Turkey.

• The Republic of Cyprus (RoC) discovered an estimated 5 to 8 tcf of natural gas in the Aphrodite field (Block 12) in December 2011, with a gross mean estimate of 7 tcf (198 bcm).
• The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) and Turkey signed a continental shelf delimitation agreement on 21 September 2011, and the TRNC subsequently granted exploration licenses to the Turkish Petroleum Corporation (TPAO) for areas that overlap with RoC blocks.
• Financing a small LNG plant for the RoC is considered challenging due to the country's 'junk' credit rating and the need for higher gas volumes to ensure commercial viability.
• The authors argue that the most probable future scenario is a continuation of the status quo, where official negotiations continue without real progress and the RoC's gas development depends on external factors, particularly Israeli decisions.
• The discovery of shale gas in the US has lowered global LNG prices, reducing the attractiveness of deep-water exploration in high-risk geopolitical areas like the Eastern Mediterranean.
• Turkey has warned international oil companies that cooperating with the RoC in disputed areas could result in being barred from future energy projects in Turkey.

APA

Gürel, A., Mullen, F., & Tzimitras, H. (n.d.). Layout 1. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5a7fa003-b583-46c9-a410-04bd04441634/Report 2013-1 Hydrocarbons.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Gürel, Ayla, Fiona Mullen, and Harry Tzimitras. Layout 1. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5a7fa003-b583-46c9-a410-04bd04441634/Report 2013-1 Hydrocarbons.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Gürel |first1=Ayla |last2=Mullen |first2=Fiona |last3=Tzimitras |first3=Harry |title=Layout 1 |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5a7fa003-b583-46c9-a410-04bd04441634/Report 2013-1 Hydrocarbons.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{grelndlayout, author = {Gürel, Ayla and Mullen, Fiona and Tzimitras, Harry}, title = {{Layout 1}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5a7fa003-b583-46c9-a410-04bd04441634/Report 2013-1 Hydrocarbons.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }