Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace

India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth and a corresponding surge in energy consumption, leading to an increasing reliance on imported oil, primarily from the Persian Gulf. Both nations are pursuing similar strategies to mitigate this vulnerability: diversifying import sources, acquiring equity oil through overseas investments, building strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), and shifting toward natural gas and nuclear power. While there are efforts toward Sino-Indian energy cooperation, such as joint bids for oilfields in third countries, competition remains high, particularly in contested areas like Burma. The report outlines three future scenarios: 'Increased cooperation,' 'Conflict in East Asia' (centered on Taiwan and Japan), and 'The Middle East explodes' (a full-scale resource war). It recommends that Norway support energy efficiency, clean coal and gas technologies, and the inclusion of China and India in the International Energy Agency (IEA).

• China and India are increasingly dependent on imported oil, with the Persian Gulf remaining the predominant source for both, making them vulnerable to instability in the Middle East.
• China's energy mix is dominated by coal, which accounted for 60.1% of total primary energy consumption as of 2003, and 79.4% of electricity generation.
• India's oil imports represented 68% of its total consumption in 2005, and projections suggest this will rise to 85% by 2025.
• China is implementing a strategy to reduce its 'Malacca Dilemma' by developing overland pipelines and ports in Burma to bypass the Malacca Strait, through which 80% of its oil currently flows.
• Both nations are building Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) to insulate their economies from price spikes and supply disruptions; China began this in 2001, and India approved its plan in early 2004.
• Sino-Indian energy cooperation has seen tangible results, such as the February 2006 joint venture 'Himalaya Energy' to acquire 36 production fields in Syria from Petro-Canada.
• Burma serves as a critical point of competition where China and India vie for natural gas from the Shwe field and strategic naval access to the Indian Ocean.
• The report identifies a 'nightmare scenario' where a US invasion of Iran triggers a full-scale resource war, leading to a severe economic crisis in India and a dominant global role for China.

APA

Tønnesson, S., & Kolås, Å. (2006). Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b5770f50-37e4-4ecd-844c-837a96ba5ded/Energy Security in Asia China India Oil and Peace.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Tønnesson, Stein, and Åshild Kolås. Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2006. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b5770f50-37e4-4ecd-844c-837a96ba5ded/Energy Security in Asia China India Oil and Peace.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Tønnesson |first1=Stein |last2=Kolås |first2=Åshild |title=Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=April 2006 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b5770f50-37e4-4ecd-844c-837a96ba5ded/Energy Security in Asia China India Oil and Peace.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{tnnesson2006energy, author = {Tønnesson, Stein and Kolås, Åshild}, title = {{Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2006}, month = apr, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/b5770f50-37e4-4ecd-844c-837a96ba5ded/Energy Security in Asia China India Oil and Peace.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }