Trade futures 2014: The WTO and Southern Africa’s External Trade Relations

The report uses scenario planning to analyze the uncertainties surrounding the WTO Doha Round and Southern Africa's trade relations. It identifies key driving forces and uncertainties, developing multiple scenarios for the multilateral trade talks, intra-regional integration (SADC, SACU, Comesa, EAC), and external relations with the US and EU. The document outlines 'preferred futures' and provides roadmaps with milestones to achieve them, emphasizing the need for proactive policy adjustments and strategic alliances.

• The WTO Doha Round faces significant obstacles, primarily agricultural subsidies and the challenge of reaching consensus among 151 countries with veto rights. South Africa is noted as a critical exception regarding non-agricultural market access (NAMA) because it liberalized substantially during the Uruguay Round.
• The report identifies four potential scenarios for the Doha Round based on the interaction between global power dynamics (compromise vs. disengagement) and the possibility of a successful round (consensus vs. discord): 'Quest for the Holy Grail' (consensus and compromise), 'A Thin Line Between Love and Hate' (consensus but disengagement), 'The Texas Chainsaw Massacre' (discord and disengagement), and 'Fatal Attraction' (discord but compromise).
• External trade relations with the US and EU are heavily influenced by the future of the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) and the rise of 'green' consumer demand in Europe. There is a risk that EU 'border tax adjustments' and sustainability requirements will create new non-tariff barriers for African exporters.
• To achieve a 'Trade Nirvana' scenario—characterized by an extended AGOA and contained EU green lobbies—the report recommends that South Africa strengthen diplomatic alliances, improve domestic environmental policies, and lobby the US for favorable AGOA terms.

APA

Hichert, T., Draper, P., & Alves, P. (2008). Trade futures 2014: The WTO and Southern Africa’s External Trade Relations. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/22-dttp_rep_22_hichert.pdf

Chicago

Hichert, Tanja, Peter Draper, and Philip Alves. Trade futures 2014: The WTO and Southern Africa’s External Trade Relations. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2008. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/22-dttp_rep_22_hichert.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Hichert |first1=Tanja |last2=Draper |first2=Peter |last3=Alves |first3=Philip |title=Trade futures 2014: The WTO and Southern Africa’s External Trade Relations |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=2008 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/22-dttp_rep_22_hichert.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{hichert2008trade, author = {Hichert, Tanja and Draper, Peter and Alves, Philip}, title = {{Trade futures 2014: The WTO and Southern Africa’s External Trade Relations}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2008}, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/22-dttp_rep_22_hichert.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }